Brilliant. Start with the CL, too late for JCP and the YM trade as they rest in the place where all old journals go to die. Why not implement the straddle via a surf 'doppelganger' account with occasional posts here. Two surf's must surely be better than one?!
So what? Who cares of the reasons at all? All a trader need is know that odds of immediate move in one direction with MAE lower than X are higher than in the opposite direction. If you don't know how to spot patterns, which provide such odds, it doesn't make any market random.
BTW idea of long straddle makes sense indeed if Surf is able to time volatility well enough, but not direction.