Surf, so far PD's have caught some nice moves but sometimes in the wrong direction. Why not try an experiment with option straddles? If every time you got a strong move you were right, not because you got the direction right but because you got the impending volatility right, you'd have won on the YM and Oil and a lot of others. Let's say you are right about oil pulling back and making a profit out of a big losing position. If you had a straddle you could close it now for a handsome profit and take a new straddle for the up move. If you are wrong in the direction because inventories hit new highs and oil tanks, you'll still be right. If there is a black swan with NK shooting off a nuke you win. If the winter oil demand is dropping off and the jobless shows industry is slowing and oil is weak you win. You'd have won on JCP and HLF. You didn't only lose on these, you lost time in waiting for the move to come in your direction so even when you get it correct you have to overcome more than losses, you have the fact your capital is underemployed while you wait for a losing position to come good. I'm suggesting you play to your current strengths instead of playing with a weak hand. You might be an ace option player. It gives you time to discover why the PD's invert at times and point you in the wrong direction. If you crack that then you can forget about straddles. If it turns out your have a strong hand in option trading, you can go on to develop some clever strategies. I'm not an option trader but I trade with someone who was an options market maker and can help you make the best of that idea if it appeals. If your win percentage goes way up it impacts your MM so you can take a larger position and compound $'s faster. It's a two edged sword: right now your MM is working against you as well as your win % but you can easily turn that upside down from what I see.
The OP seems to be doing nearly everything wrong. Very poor timing. No stop loss (or well defined exit strategy). In other words very poor risk management. Over position sizing. 10CL is pretty large position ($100 a tick), i wouldn't hold overnight a trade that size unless i had at least a $1million risk capital, i doubt the OP has that much. His trading plan consists of only of a vague entry signal his so called 'Price Drivers'. Which seem to want to fight the prevailing trend. Counter trend trading of this sort is amongst the hardest type of trading there is (especially if you dont have any risk management in place). He has nothing resembling a well defined trading plan. A well defined trading plan consists of a well defined entry, well defined exit, solid risk management, smart postion sizing and having the rock solid discipline to execute it all. In summary the OP, even though he claims 20 years trading experience, is trading very much like a beginning trader.
That's complete and utter bullshit! The so-called edges to which you refer undoubtedly were merely minor aberrations to be temporarily exploited. Reading books is no substitute for experience but there is knowledge to be gained from the right ones. Although I have on occasion made huge profits in crude oil going back to early eighties, my programs find it not as worthwhile as others to trade these days. PRAY for war. Woody
He's been my model to emulate for risk. His approach is to always play great defense and I concur. I have no stomach for large losses. They mean you must go back to the drawing board. Woody
I agree that I have not found volume to be the key despite so much attention to it. But ignoring PRICE is like going to the racetrack and NOT betting...
No, your timing is way off even for long-term views, because you never actually hold winners, but tend to hold losers. No offense Surf, but it seems to be like classic reverse R:R strategy which gives illusion of less losses.
Without a great defense long term survival is not possible despite spectacular successes. If there is a dearth of spectacular successes and an abundance of spectacular failures then one day a single loss will be so far outside prior experience to wipe out the account. It's a guaranteed train wreck with only the timing in question. It's too early to conclude surf's PD's fit that picture but the disease seems to be presenting. However it looks like surf could fix that in minutes by using options strategies to buy time to refine his PD's.
I made a similar suggestion some time ago. Like I said, he's interested in notoriety and internet fame not consistency.