False. Everytime you enter a directional trade, you are "calling" or "forecasting" or "predicting: the market. otherwise you would never enter the trade. The removal from reality is profound with the pure PA/ TA battalion. surf
Following the market is not a prediction. If i follow another driver in my car, i am not predicting where they are going. Unlike many other signals, a market making a new all time high is an unambiguous indicator of a direction that you can follow. You have no idea where it is going to go, you just follow it long. Head and shoulders, trend lines etc. These can all be interpreted in many different ways, but a market making a new all time high is an unambiguous signal to follow the market in the long direction. If your aim is to follow a car and it is clearly heading north, but you turn your car around and decide to head south, then that is just dumb. But it is what you are doing by shorting this market. At this point in time, the Dow Longs are following, but the Shorts are predicting.
Despite the recent losing trade, the odds remain in our favor for a plunge in the DJIA. Remember, you can have 85% or more odds on your side and the trade still be wrong. surf
But.... everyone who places a trade thinks the odds are in their favor, the overwhelming majority at this point in time think the odds are in their favor going long and they are right. And in your hypothosesis, you may be right, but will go broke as the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I don't think, I know-- It could easily have been long, I dont' care, I just do what the system says. Yes, John Maynard Keynes --the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. surf
Tomorrow shall be very interesting for sure. New POTUS speech is going to have an impact, possibly quite radically. How can it not?