Ha Surf. Nice try at conflating the Macron odds with the markets reaction to the outcome which are of course independent.
No. You're saying the most likely scenario, a Macron win, is probably bullish. But everyone knows that. The market discounts the likely scenario, with a dash of the unlikely. It's like an FDA drug trial. "I think the stock will go up if the FDA approves the drug." Yes, of course. But the current stock price is a weighted average of approved/not-approved valuations.
You do realize that almost every time you post a chart getting all excited over a Dow -25 day the market reverses... why are you not equally disappointed at the +28 day we have now? Real traders don't start popping the champagne because the market made an inch when you have a mile to go.
It should just keep going up, to be honest. It's what the market does! Pull up a daily chart. If brokers didn't let retail people short the market, there'd be lots more people making good money instead of being wiped put. We'll see 3k on teh ES soon enough, and that's a promise