I'm not here to bash Surf. Anything can happen and a difference of opinion makes a market. He could still be right with his YM short. I just take issue with Mr.Scalper claiming "the big boys are getting short" and "buyers are suckers". There is no evidence publicly available that Large Spec/Institutional positions are bearish. You can be a contrarian all you want and there is nothing wrong with that but lets not defended his statements. He was just overly eager to have your back I guess.
Surf The end for your trade will be monday. Guaranteed! Tell skippy to get his can fishing pole ready.
It is not a technical analysis indicator. Although you could apply technical analysis methods to it if you wanted to just like if you were to chart the Weekly Jobless Claims. Here in the USA any futures markets with more than 20 active speculators are required by law to report their positions to a Government Agency called the CFTC. This "indicator" does not apply to stocks, its for futures only. The exchanges report the positions to the CFTC under the speculators categorization type. I never really knew how often Retail Traders were wrong until I recently started reading the CFTC Reports. Unfortunatley the report lags a week behind. The good news is "the big boys" don't flip their positions constanly so their sentiment from last week is for the most part the same for this week. Again it is for futures only, not stocks. http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Good to see an articulate & intelligent poster on the surf report, posting evidence-- Thanks and have a great weekend! surf