Out of the blue comment, but nevertheless true.... You are obsessed with right or wrong and with wealth, particularly wealthy people.
Well shit, I promised I'd post mine. Not as classy, but she floats and gets past a few buoys. So here:
Russell 2K made a new all time high on intraday and closing basis yesterday. Very bullish. Smurf faders should maintain any long positions here. We expect another up big move by the end of next week to push the Dow and S&P to new all times as well.
That's all great, after all, up or down is a 50/50 outcome. How one tackles price oscillations is the real issue, hence the mostly net negative results of live calls on ET. Only few master the trading skill, which is basically knowing how to extract value from movement of price. I do a lot of sports betting, there are probably thousands of tipsters that solely concentrate and market their strike/hit rate, unfortunately vast majority of them are unable to sustain positive equity due to low payout schedule. What I'm getting at is that ability to sustain gain is more important than ability to sustain positive win rate. Yes, Surf's current results are negative, but what if he finally nails it with a big short? On the other hand, you could be mostly right on your fade calls, yet at the end come out in negative territory.
When everybody is bearish you should be careful with short positions. If the market corrects upwards the move can be very violent as everybody will be taken by surprise. So the screenshot you made is completely irrelevant. From the high to the low it took 19 trading days, then it stayed 14 days in the same area, to reverse to long and make a new high, which took only 8 trading days. This shows that the market was a bit surprised and people had to quickly get out of their shorts. Moves with the trend in general go much faster than moves against the trend. What happened confirmed this theory. You should always follow YOUR system, not what others think. The market is always right, but sometimes the market needs a bit of time to know what the right direction is. It is in that period that you should take position, you should use the lag of the market.
Great post...win rate is pretty much irrelevant...Surf may have lost on all those 7/8 trades, but perhaps they were all at 1 contract level, whereas this one is at perhaps 10 contract level. So Surf loses 500 odd points on those losers, but could have gained (had he taken his profits at the low) maybe 800 x10 = 8000 points on the latest trade.
Days have nothing to do with it, it is what happens on the day that matters most. You lot are really clueless..LOL And you then laugh at Mr surf, who has more experience in the financial world than the whole bunch of you put together..LOEL
You are welcome Mr surf. Vix ftrs will be bought up very shortly. Once this is complete, you will not have to wait too long