Kudos on the YM collapse today... That's the thing about systematic trading. Its positioning looks silly much of the time, till the dollars suddenly pour in, $5, $10, $30.... Again - Kudos!
Much more can be made riding the myriad of ups and downs as a larger move is made than taking a position at the begining of the move and holding till the end. Surf could have already made his thousand points. He best make haste and grab these 400 or so points, he has now. But he won't. Alas!
Do people with superior trading skill and knowledge say 'one more shot at this and I'm never trading it again'? What a joke. Please continue with the Surf/TrueType circle jerk...
Daily charts. In my post 1367, also a daily chart of the ES (ES and YM generally run together and I trade ES), I said we need to see a PB that holds outside the range. On the YM it is still holding. On the ES it is at bottom of range. Price tends to get sucked back in the range from any B.O. That is, most B.O.'s fail 70% to 80% fail (eventually one B.O. will succeed). So, for Surf to eat caviar and drink high dollar wine we need to see this PB hold and then a continuation of the bear B.O. south. We are at now arriving the point of indication. Will price now reverse form this high PB point and continue south? Since the PB has made it back up to near the bottom of the range. If so, surf will rejoice. However, if the trend continues up into the range then we can look to trade up towards the top of the range again and will be forced to await a B.O. on the upside that may, or may not, succeed. But it can go for days on it's journey to the top of the range or it can spike up real quick. The key will be to watch any B.O. at the top and if it delays then I can trade the meandering around within the range since it is big enough of a range to be grabbing a few points here and there. Why be idle? Make some $ while price is gonna do what it does. Of course, if the PB holds and price heads back down then I will want to be on board and join surf at the high dollars restaurant to celebrate his victory. I think he will be buying for all if it goes his way????? I am reposting the prev chart in post 1367 and todays chart also so folks can see what I am talking about. Interestingly, on the ES but the 5 minute chart we have price trading at the top of a megaphone pattern or expanding triangle so it is at a good reversal point to head south if the pattern holds. That is therefore, good news for surf. If the megaphone pattern fails and price continues up then surf may be back on the beach drinking cheap beer and breaking the beer bottles. I am also attaching a 5 minute chart of the ES showing the expanding triangle. Good luck surf. I think you gonna need it. Price is still bullish.
Did you see that megaphone pattern succeed? Surf maybe smiling. My previous post showed the pattern and I discussed what it indicated and it succeeding or failing to succeed before it did either. Fortunately, for surf it succeeded so he can breath a little freer. Just goes to show that PA patterns work. The problem is you have to have an understanding of what it means when they fail. Most folks just try them and come to the conclusion they are 50/50. But it is just as important to know what it implies when they fail. For instance, wedge tops ...well one is looking for a break south. But, if context if a strong bull trend then using wedge tops to short is a losing strategy. Wedge top failures usually have at least 2 more legs up and can continue one wedge top after the other. Bottom line; to trade price action price patterns you must not only know what to do when a pattern succeeds but also what to do when it fails. This megaphone succeeding was good for 7 or 8 points in the ES and maybe more if you hold to see if it trades to bottom of megaphone. Not me. I exit and grab my 7 points. wait for a PB and enter agaiun if it continues back down. Why should I give the market back 7 points when it handed me 7 points on a silver platter. Hold onto your billfold boys.