I chuckle at your foolishness. NOTHING in trading is guaranteed to happen nothing. Marrying your position psychologically is a disaster as you have shown time and time again. carry on.
Hmmm. Looking at a long-term on this YM, I see two possibilities. One is a 50% drop from Feb 1st, to ~20385 on June contract. The other is a DB bounce from March 1st, to ~20920 on June contract. Alas, I have not studied equity indices deep enough, have no feel for them. Sorry. If I had to put my money on it and choose one of the two above, with a gun to my head, I'd go the short route over the next few weeks. It is 50/50. And what the heck... If you are wrong and the trigger is pulled, you won't feel a thing.
Explanation of trade. Trade 10 contracts you have made some coca cola money and done so in a tight range. Again simple PA along with some minor TA indicators..i.e. two MA's
Now we are at top of range. Small Bull bars. Price trading above both MA's. If we get a BO above 2363 then I will wait for a PB. If PB holds above top of the range and I get a long entry I will go long. Why? BO of range with a PB holding above BO and next resistance level should allow at least a 1 or 2 pt scalp. Maybe more. Plus getting close to close. May get an afternoon late surge. If opposite happens and BO above 2363 fails then I would look for a short signal. Simple PA.
No, not in the least. See the difference between you and I, is that i am going for the big wins. My YM system is designed to knock it out of the park, hopefully several times per year, with MONSTER GAINS. I am trading with risk capital, not the mortgage money or any other living expense money-- another big difference, you on the other hand and its you in general for all the playa hatas, you are clearly working with scared money-- Its the same reason i invest in start ups and early stage ventures--- one can make 1000 times their investment-- why do anything when it pays less than an executive level job with ZERO risk. If you are going to risk, risk big, or don't play the game for peanuts IN addition, i am more of a speculator about future price moves, rather than an active day trader. Speculation about long term moves is really the only way big money is made in this biz. Yes, my system says the 1000 point plunge is guaranteed to happen, and I am going with it. surf