Hi Jack, This method of walking through step-by-step, bar-by-bar, channel-by-channel, spike-by-spike, with narration embedded with the charts is exactly what I had been hoping you would do. I don't know how it could get better than this. I plan on putting them in a PowerPoint presentation. For graphically oriented people like me, this is the el primo. I'm now confident that this is "gettable" by the mainstream. Good work. JohnnyK
Unfortunately, the mainstream will not get it, largely because they don't want to. Jack did a massive thread on Stochastics a while back. The information there is a classic on the way indicators work, and I can personally attest that Jack's fundamental work, if studied, will evolve you as a trader. Regards Oddi
The volume segments come from monitoring. Logically, a person comes to dealing with a continuum and has it automated. The tradeoffs I made with the three zones that are "isolated" allow me to visually "sweep" my graphics. Below 2,500, the market is not functional. I regard this as high risk ameliorated only by not any possibility of movement. Between 2,500 and the beginning of the "slow pace" band, I believe "drift" is possible and it follows the "prevailing" market modus. There is a "caveat" associated with the P, V relation (See Granville, et al and not some of the contemporay stuff here in ET). the P,V deals exclusively with increasing nd decreasing, omitting "constant unchanging volume (and at any level). I suggest a corrolary for this omission. It is "if volume is constant, the price will slowly drift downward. A gravity effect. Sometimes on low steady volume above dry up the drift is not down as the corrolary suggests. I turn to look at the "climate" when this seems to be showing up. What I see is that the various duration channels are mostly running together (upward) and this sets the climate. It is powerful to be able to consider all four channel formations within each other and see how they influence each other. This handles the low steady volume intervals at midday quite well. Not much money may be made during this time but there is a comfort to be pulling a tick or so every few..... should a boost, surge of a real shot of volume hit, you, then can collect on it by locking in some profits and reentering back on the tendline side of the movement. The market pace band at 4,500 to 6,000 is the first money making band. Price moves in a channel that has cyclic traverses. this is intermediate stuff that is very reinforcing for beliefs. Obviously the "rocket", fast paced band at 10 to 12.5K is the best trading place (A beginner level) because there is nearly zero risk and high money velocity. I "sweep" volume visually to calibrate myself for other consideration I do. A glance is all I do because I have the bands. To make money, you deal with waiting mostly as you "hold". You repeat the four parts of the "process" repeatedly and the "action" is to continue to hold. Knowing the pace of the market is a leading indicator of price. gathering volume gives the pace. Medium pace in the range of 6K to 10K gives a picture of movement, volatility and translation on the DOM. The traverses of the trend are money makers. You can have a left to right traverse so high in volatility that you trade it as a HVS. Always having the context of the market pace is like laying out a specific set of surgery stuff for a drill that is going to be executed. I clip papaers with a #5 scalpel just to fool around with cutting one depth of paperstock whatever the stock may be. My scalpel skill is really limited to cutting duct tape away mostly. get a picture that when you know the market pace as a leading indicator of price, then, you can summon tools for making money that are very efficient. "anticipation " was the watch word of Bucky Fuller. He named his favorite sloop anticipation. He wore two wrist watches. i really enjoyed the years of work with him. I really use anticipation as my watchword for SCT trading. Of my four error classes for debriefing, E1 and E2 are related to anticipation. Five rays set the zones for me. 2,500, 4,500, 6,000, 10K, and 12.5K. Adjacent paces from low to medium to fast pace. I add 20K as a limiting case. I do PRV to determine acceleration and deceleration as well. The two halves of the P, V relation connect to acceleration (increasing) and deceleration (decreasing). As volume accelerates the trend will continue. When volume goes into deceleration you are going to see the trend "change" Thus the P, V relationship describes two major aspects of the market. Channels, and all formations, follow the P, V relationship. To make money, your job is broken into two distinct parts. One is taking actions to get to the right side of the market. The other is "holding" to continue to make money. Thus is it like looking at a cyclic waveform. At extremes you lock in profits and proceed with the next "hold" which unfolds between extremes. This is the opposite of edges, R/R and money management. These two contrasting approaches are very different because of one factor. Timing. One approach is timing centered and the other is centered on something other than timing. I am not informed about edge trading to any extent. I am oriented to the basic relationship that describes the market function. Volume turns out to be the "timing" function that leads the price which is used to make money as change in price occurs. Pace describes how much money is being delivered to traders for their efficient extraction. The whole volume range above 12.5K is "more" than fast paced. It is extreme and mostly the set of causal factors are "outside" of the market per se. This is reality. When you get volume in the "extreme" look outside the market for what is driving it. An accelerant, of course, is how a lot of people deal with what they call the "unknown". The most familiar to traders is the "cascading of stops". This precipitation, is caused by strategic risk and money management "protection" becoming "market". Future volume is an interesting sector of trading strategy. ET does not spend time on this, except for few. Others have posted the sectors that I include in completing an approach. The P, V relation is foremost. It is also true that future volume is ancillary to this. The wide range of 3,500 to 14,000 probably represents two of six sigmas of a guasian distribtion. That is, about 68% of the total distribution. In EE talk this is a poor band pass filter and not very sensitive. It is better, pehaps to be able to "tune in" various band passes and captialize on the tools to use to make money in each. the 5ma on 1min is not something I would do. The PRV on the 5min somehow "connects" me to the action. Most traders have approaches that give them various equity curves. As posted here we see that Osman has a thing that magically pays bills. You note that I am oriented to placing money and effort where it works to help deal with community or pervasive proplems. These two levels of operation are in contrast. Everyone should do their thing. KISS turns out to be where it is at to really make money. Making money is definitely not rocket science. How does a person arrive at an appropriate operating place instead of getting to the place of "fear" and "hope" that riddles the financial industry. For sure Tradingscience, et al. is not the path as depicted by Osman and what he could impart as an instructor. People who want to be efficient and really make money need to work and study and become embued with stuff that allows their full potential to be realized. There are many many ways to trade. As long as price is moving, money can be taken out of the market from someone who is willing to give it to you. To study and learn about a three variable system and to know how a human functions is not very much to ask. To do it thoroughly and deeply is a natural human process. As I grew up being a C+ history major at an Ivy league college got you a job just like you dad's and you could be assured of having an estate, summer home and memberships to live just like you grew up. Nowadays it is easier. All you have to do is participate in markets filled with people who are casual in their learning and understandings and mistaken beliefs. You are up against people who do a point a day per contract on the ES. It is very clear that a minority of people take a lot of capital from a majority of people. It is anything but a survivor game of focussing on being "right" over making money.
**************************************************** ....."the kind of place where BSAM is.": As if you would know, oh great one. Let me explain, briefly, at least something, about where BSAM is. About 5 years ago I would have maybe thought you were some kind of stock wizard. Like a few others here, I may have been inclined to have been mystified by your ramblings. Today, I take your posts for what they are: ramblings, for the great majority of the time. There may be some value somewhere in some of your posts, but I find them extremely hard to find. Doesn't matter how smart one is or how smart one may think one is or how smart one wants to appear to others on a message board. What matters is whether you can communicate your thoughts in a lucid manner to others. Apparently, you can't, Jack. If I wanted to pretend to be an ET "guru", it'd be a simple matter of using all the old "mystical" techniques that you and a few others around here employ. Using lengthy, excessive and wordy eloquence, that is flashy and elaborate, but without much real substance. I'm pretty much a straight up type person and I wouldn't get near the ego fulfillment that you and other ET "gurus" seem to enjoy. I concur with Osman. Keeping trading simple is the key. Simplicity = such tools as S/R/Trendlines/Channels, etc. Of course, there's much debate about where these key areas are. But, that's what makes the market go up and down. To reiterate: Trading ain't NEARLY this complicated.....As you're trying to make your clueless and hypnotized followers believe. What a joke! As to your statement: "What I post gives a lot of people headaches. For them, what I profer is not a good idea.".....I 100% agree. See, Jack, I do occasionally find a gem among your postings!
What I don't understand about most ETers, is that they spend way to much of their "precious" time antagonizing and bashing others. IMO, contributing and being constructive is far, far more fulfilling. My suggestion is, to those that do not care for a current subject matter (or person), LEAVE THE THREAD!. This way, your lengthy barrages of insults and BS will not disturb those that care to grab (if only) a bit of insight. Peace
I asked for your observations on volume (INDU & YM in mind) some days back and I have found here your answer. You give eloquent testimony as to role of volume. Thank you.
I assume you may be directing your comments, at least in part, to me. I did respond to Jack's insult directed towards me. Do you exempt Jack from your diatribe? Agree that contributing and being constructive is more fulfilling. I care about the subject matter. And please be reminded that Jack was not the originator of this thread. He seems to have made it his own. I certainly want to contribute something positive and on topic (please note from my post which you seem to be so upset about): "Keeping trading simple is the key. Simplicity = such tools as S/R/Trendlines/Channels, etc. Of course, there's much debate about where these key areas are. But, that's what makes the market go up and down." AND....."To reiterate: Trading ain't NEARLY this complicated"..... Or.....were you so concerned about Jack's defense and mysticism that you are UNABLE to receive good, solid and "KISS" trading information? Tune in, ktmexc. Try to focus on the entirety of one's postings here; not just the parts that you find upsetting.
It would be a gentleman's attitude to present counter arguments. When there are no arguments, envious washed out gurus (traders) resort to offend other guru's (trader's) "followers". What a joke!