Just to be sure of myself... and maybe clarify for others: The first down channel of today... you have marked with bold green lines with 3 channels inside. This segmentation is because you had rising volume on bar 5 implying a R-L traverse of an up (sideways) channel? JT
Not sure what the whining is about but there is a cure for it: Make money. Guys like dbphoenix who easily get their panties in a bunch probably aren't making any. And they'll probably continue to not make any money going forward by getting angry and accusing people of being followers, etc. Sometimes I wonder why Jack even bothers sharing anything with this group with all the griping going on. In any case, thanks Jack for all the nuggets I've picked up from you. I don't post much any more but I still read all your posts. Good health to you. Think good thoughts and enjoy the weekend everyone.
Icarus, I always suspected you'd derive a great deal of enjoyment from Jack's nuggets. Glad to find out I was right.
Lets start with yesterday (See Attached) This puts me in ball park. This carries over a prior channel that may be in effect. You will see in a while that it held for a full day (half of 20MAY and half of 21 may) Now my chart has lines going into the am of 21May before the open. For background, the present state of the carping by dbphoenix is that anyone can draw trend lines in hind sight. And were I posting prints or trading logs, Nitro would explain to everyone that I fake them using software whose name he has posted. I put in the trend lines ASAP. You will see shortly that I used two bars to get the very first trend of 21MAY. I want to post a few times and discuss segments of the day so people can get to see that "hindsight" is not what traders use to draw channels. Long before you know what the channel is going to look like, you are trading it. A trader uses leading indicators of price to make money on price. the order of activity is to take on a trade ASAP and as you "hold" the position you deal with annotating stuff like trading logs, journalling and keeping charts current vis a vis annotations of signals that will be coming up.
Look at chart 1 attached. I drew it after the market closed. It is an illustration for your benefit. Note closely that there is a trapezoid completed at the time and in the place I indicate. I am "waiting" for the price to fill in the trapezoid that I have already drawn. the trapezoid represents how I "trust" channels. The carryover gives me the feeling that price does not "fall off the edge of the earth". The lime (green to most) left and right lines define the traverses that will be made by price to get to the "end" of the channel. We have 2 traverses so far. I plan on exiting at the end of the lime trend. If I trade within the trend by "slaloming the traverses" it is because it is possible to "net" more money than not.
See Chart 2 attached. I will smooth out how price and volume work as the trend gets underway. Look for the word "vengence". Chart I got us to the opening of bar 8 where the second R/L traverse came into view. The most frequent single question set I get over the last 15 years is about this point in time. this chart takes you to bar 9. A fifteen minute interval. By the end of bar 8 you have drawn the "traget" exit value in. the question you have to wait out is simply when to "Hit T". Confident people will be hitting T to reverse long to take themselves through the end of the morning by completing the second trend of the day. What I usually do as the day unfolds is get to read a lot of comments about me and how screwed up I am and what I do is. If you get to read copy and study all of this stuff, you might gt to a place where you can understand that I am speaking to you in careful and complete ways that provide deep and abiding insight as to how to be able to anticipate what the market is going to do. Count your blessing that I am here for the while. When I say the dbphoenix is posting a "mess" that is precisely what I mean to convey. Plain and KISS if you get to where I am, you are very very rich. How you get there is KISS too. Read and understand this stuff. It will make you very happy in a short time.
Chart 3 attached hereto and made a part hereof (LOL), shows you the end of the trend. It comes on the bar that makes the most money in the limited way you have information at the time of the bar. What I do is "ACT" based up on my beliefs about how things work. In this level of discussion it is a matter of the trust I have inchannels. i know to trust channels. the "clone invention on q charts is a kind of statement that the qchart people know what I have learned to know. By this point we have to park the "myth" that channels are drawn in hindsight. Those who will tell all of you that I did all of this in hindsight are not correct. What I am doing instead is answering your question by explaining what I put on my charts to make money.
I may post a few more charts for today to clean up a lot od the "mess" I referred to vis a vis the demand supply journal labelled Price and Volume. Because the current IT trend (heavy blue lines on my charts and the slowest of the four integrated levels of channels I recommend to you for consideration) was hit on the 20th and because we are testing a Top of R as well, will show you some segements of charts from my first post today to David. chart 4 will emphasize the second trend and how market pace comes into the picture. The lime trend channel for the first short was a fast paced trend thaqt had volume driving at the upper level 10 to 12.5 K per 5 min bar. The second trend was long and bgan at a medium pace (4,500 to 6K per 5 min bar. This is normal. Where is would end is there to know. What follows is apparent as well. Gradually by giving attention to what I am posting with the several charts that follow, you will come to a place where you can consider the final comments that I am going to be making. Taken together, the annotated charts and these posts, are something that can be reviewed critically for enabling yourself to make a lot of money. I am glad to assume the responsibilty for enabling people to make money. I have done it sucessfully since 1960. The market gives opportunity. Second, it's efficiency in delivering the opportunity, does not change much if at all. We make money by connecting. You can enhance your potential. You can enhance your efficiency as well. I do not screw people up with what I post. I do not hold anything back nor do I ever refuse to answer questions. Ordinarily, I feel a 6 months to one year effort can bear quality results in futures stuff (expert trading with income beyond normal high class living needs). In ET it may work much more rapidly. Any person who has traded equities should just ramp up on futures in a matter of a few weeks.
Excellent posts... I'm glad you included the carryover aspects because I am weak in that area. As they say - a picture is worth 1K words. Also I'm seeing that it's best to let the channels organize themselves (if that makes sense) -- they all have their own personalities but fit within a general form - like snowflakes. Personally, going over the stuff you've presented is fine tuning vis a vis my beliefs -- it feels great to be "getting it" As an aside -- before I stumbled on Jack I had been cultivating a concept of trend channels on my own for almost 2 years. Jack has provided quite a shortcut here! Be warned: you have to believe in PV first. JT