Whether I'm paper-trading or live, I treat them as if it were live. Unless I'm trying out new strategies on sim, I play it like it is live. It should be practice and practice should prepare you for trading live otherwise it won't do anything to make you better.
Yesterday 3-3-2008 = -$35 on 2 contracts 3-4-2008 (today) down big time -$475 on only 4 contracts. Account details: Today's balance: 2,440 P/L since start: -2,580 Rate of return: -51.6% Commissions Since start: $1,165 I now have suspended all real money trading and will restart paper trading. With -51.6% drop in equity is very painful, it's especially painfull when you break your own rules. Today was a perfect example, unfortunately. My $475 loss occured within one hour of market open. I used wider stops due to volatility but did not help. Market Today: 1) opened right under Daily Pivot of 12227. 2) It was a bearish sign to begin with 3) it moved down to MID Daily S1 12195 4) Down to DAILY S1 12162 (more on this later) I had already one contact at loss when I thought small up rally started off DAILY S1 but it was short lived and turned right back down after hitting Monthly mid PPS at 12189 (not sure why I even used monthly pivot data) I was trading from the long side, looking back I should not have traded from the long side...market started on bearish note started below Daily Pivot moving down to S1. Now, around 7.20 AM PST I saw market rallying to higher Support pivot point, I thought if it crosses 12195 I need to go long which I placed a stop buy order at 12198 which was filled and went as high a couple more ticks to 2001 or so then it was a sharp, sharp turn around which cost me 40 points on 1 contract. yes, it's way pass mine regular 10 point stop but things got bad, all way down. I think I covered at the vey bottom. Looking back now I don[t remember what TRIN reading was and what ADV/DECL ratio was...but fuck what else should I say. I post some more observations later.
My Feb-2008 P/L which I will discuss later I traded for 16 days. 8 - winning days 8- losing days Average winning = $116.75 Average losing = $243.75 These are pre commissions. WITH COMMISSIONS: 10-losing days 6 - winning days Average wining = $95.83 Average losing = $274 Losing rate is almost 3 fold. As you can see biggest 'bad' days were 785 and $410 losing days. Obviously it has a bad impact on your psyc which causes trader blocks. I am going for run in the park, will back and post some more details. This taking me down, I need to refocus, get my head together. Market is not going anyware, I will not miss on new highs and lows, I'll come back to the market when I am ready. from now plan is this. I will not risk a real dollar untill I polish my system. I will start trading real money *if* and only *if* I make up lost money and get to break-even point with Sim trading. I'll need to turn out mor than 50% return just to break even.
continued trading in SIM account starting 12 PM PST before machine froze again, seems to be TS problem running along with Infinity Futures. 2 trades, 4 contracts +$430 Note, this is now paper trading, I am trying to take as seriously as I can.
SIM trading for 1 hour or so this morning, have meetings. 1) 2 @ 12258 out for -110. Down from midPR1 12255 2) 2 @ short out -20 3 short 2 @ 12268 > cover 12277 Market went highter from that point on 4) short @ 12310 > cover 316 5) short @12308 > cover 12323 (-135) 6) short @ 12322 off the Daily R1 OF 12329 > 12337 CURRENT TRIN (7:20 am) .56-.58 trend down. TICK 597, ADV/CECL 2189/721. Bal -495 Lost shorting/fading YM on an UP trend.
hey buddy, i am keepin up here, sorry that you have to switch to paper-trading now. these markets are absolutely trecherous from what i can see, and protecting capital is #1 for me now, i'm going to be 80% paper trading now too, and only going with the best calls with real money. sucks we got into the markets during this period
just a quick update here...took the rest of the March to sim trade, starting trading small with TS account, not Infinity Futures. Very mixed results to show. Will update with TS trading results next week. Have better understanding of pivots, it appears pivots working as good indicators so far but I keep takeing the oposite side of the trade. I'll post a seperate message on how others using Pivots. Thanks.