-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from Bearbelly: I admit to a certain curiosity about some of Mr Hersheys claims and the inability of anyone to copy his method but I dont understand your vitriolic post. What has he done to you? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gerry's empathetic response: "imagine: the current world record for running a marathon is (don't know exactly) something around 2 hours. now somebody comes around and tells you that it is absolutely possible to run a marathon in - say - 40 minutes and that everybody who does not believe this is a moron, etc. what would be your reaction to such a claim? you would expect some proof since this is (to say the least) an extremely bold statement. either the person who makes such a claim should proof it - or he should show you someone else who can run the marathon in 40 minutes. but what do you get instead? you get no proof - you are being called names because of your ignorance and that you simply have no clue about running or sports in general. what would you think?" ---------------------------------------- Gerry and beary, I'll use the marathon and the markets in a comparison. Boston is the site; the distance is 26.3 miles and the usual winners are from Ethiopia and the US runners may get into the top 10 finishers. The race is run at the same time of the year: Near the end of the first quarter. A time of about 2:07 to 2:10 will win it. This is my reality and how I observe the Boston Marathon. For the markets I sight several data characterisics but not at all familiar to both of you. You have it all understood and you are stuck there and it is different than my views. Let me teach you how to do the Boston marathon in 40 minutes. Meet me at the starting line and bring a stop watch. You are going to go from the starting line to the finish line my way and I am going to be there with you and you are going to cross the finish line after we have followed the course foot by foot. We meet. You get in my car and I drive you to the finish line and I let you out of the car. I suggest to you that doing the race in the time of 40 minutes is easy and you have a stop watch that shows we did it in less than 40 minutes regardless of your condition. I suggest that you can do it again when you want and to use my car if you wish on your own. This may not be possible for anyone to do. It is inconvenient and that can be seen right off. As far as my car is concerned I make it available to anyone who asks, usually. I leave it parked outside. You can get a duplicate car by copying the car using your computer and your paper and your ink. The 25,000 people who qualify to run the race qualify by running a similar race elsewhere and send their results to Boston to get a number so they can participate. I go to the starting line when ever I want to show someone who does not even have a number how to go from the starting line, follow the course and cross the finish line with their very own stop watch that will show that less than 40 minutes passed. So gerry and beary look at the marathon differently than I do. I know the starting line, I know the course, 22 miles out is where heart break hill is as the course runs NE towards Boston through it southwestern suburbs and I know the finish line. I lived in Arlington for a while and commuted to tech and the H place, NE and other places nearby as a guy who people came to hear speak regularly. So gerry and beary think the only way to go from the start to the finish is their perceived way and they can and do explain this to ET and further they explain that I am full of bullshit and have never proven anything nor can anyone do what I do anyway. The fact is I see the starting line, I know the course and I know where the finish line is. I just do it in less than 40 minutes in a warm car when the race temperature usually runs about 50 degrees outside. Gery and beary haven't been in my car and they only drive in their cars or get out their Pumas and run along dirty streets and get very tired. The name of what they do is very familiar to me and I do not do it. Lets look at the markets. Read 100 books about them. See how big they are and how much money is made by the people who do a broad range of approaches and make a lot of money. There are other people who make money and will not tell others how they do it. New people come and have terrific results. Read about Greenwich's own Stevie wearing the blue blazer and zinging around the Marathon course in his Porsche. I've never seen Stevie at the Indian Harbor Yatch Club but I have had a martini with some of the Chubbs. They also do the marathon in the insurance business in less than 2:07:43. Gerry and beary need to get it that the market has the money and offers it at rates that they cannot understand. They and the dogs and ducks don't get it that a lot of money is continually available at rates that can be measured. Gerry needs to get a market stop watch and look at it for a few days and find out how manty ticks the market does a day. He needs to see the ticks talk . Dog can cite every week of my life by now and doesn't as yet know the daily offerings of the stock markets and the commodities markets. They think I am "unbelieveable". The reality is that the markets and their cold black and white offerings are actually what is unbelievable to them. I just draw lines around what is there. I draw maps of how to do the trading race and win at it. It is like Nitro posting a response to my prints and explaining to everyone the software that he knows about that could be used to fake my prints that I posted. Its wake up time gerry and beary. The marathon can be done in 40 minutes. Just don't try to do it your way. What you guys call claims just happen to be statements of your not being able to understand another point of view than what you think is THE point of view. There are many points of view other than yours and I have one of them. The average ES long term profits per day for successful ET traders is 1 point a day per ES contract. There are onlt three lesser values that could be earned per day and still be profitable. They are 3/4 of a point, a 1/2 a point and 1/4 point. To run the Boston marathon your way, you have to win somewhere else first and submit results. My results, for you are unbelievable and in this case you are not the guys who hand out the racing numbers. you may not even be qualitifers. I am and the people in ET who are using this stuff are continually posting "unbelievable, by your standards, results. So how do I view the gerry and beary and ducks and dogs. They are people who tell me off as a quid pro quo that comes from my posting my ass off to be helpful to others. They and guys like Nitro explain to others that what I post is not true and can't ever be because they absolutely have determined that I am full of bullshit some way all based on their perception of what is beleievable which in fact is incorrect. After a few years I grow intolerant of their performances that are based on being on the sidelines and not doing the work of getting out of the place they love to maintain and polish with their comments in every place I post and where there are others who are actually working to improve themselves. These people who are working and working and working are trying to improve their places and spaces. I get excellent advice on how I am wasting energy and getting bad vibes from these kinds of people who are bridled by their knowledge skills and experiences. This advice is correct and accurate and is going to be correct and accurate for one long time. gerry and beary and the ducks and dogs are out of luck. They get to be and stay where they are continually digging into their stations and bunkering their defences to isolate themselves from the opportunities the market holds. I am the messenger for a lot of people. Most all of them learn and believe deeply that the world I have enjoined with is unbelievable and how I tell it gives them continuous and unlimited opportunities to do what they do to maintain their presence here as detractors of unfounded commentary. So what. For me that's it. They are adults and not getting anything. I do not believe for a minute that these people can ever get to a new place for any rational reasons. If you want to do the marathon course in less than 40 minutes, then do the course in a way that gets you there in less than 40 minutes. The market always lets anyone have out of it what the conveyance they build can carry. I take out of the market what it offers by continuing to iteratively refine my effectivenss and efficiency in sharing my responsibilities with the market. Because I have spent nearly fifty years with this orientation and because I am fully equipped as a person, I am at a point where I get the job done. It is not arrogant for me to say that each time I write something as run on copy, there will be something in it that is new to a person who has not knocked around purposefully as long as I have. Berry and geary and the ducxks and dogs just haven't applied their given gifts to the opportunity at hand and they need to occassionally get someone who, in my case, is very wise to their contemporary shortcomings and behavior. I have deciided to call them on each of their trading short comings every time they step into my view. Always in a clear, concise and crisp way to use the words of E. B White. None of these guys know the potential of the markets in any way. Get it straight about the markets and don't be like these people. Get acquainted and get smart.
when the corrupt and unscrupulous us gov. decided to go to war in iraq (long before 9/11, etc.) - they knew that they had to invent a "good" reason to do so - and after they were given the gift of 9/11 they had to spin a good story of terror and wmd and a connection to iraq and s.h. never did it matter if that story was true or false. what matters is telling a big lie often enough and at every occasion so that sooner or later the stupid majority believes it - cause "it's being told again and again" and "the gov. wouldn't lie to us". this is how this world functions - if you wan't the stupid majority to believe a big fat lie - you just have to tell it again and again - and on the other hand flame everybody who does not join as "ignorant" or "unpatriotic", etc. hitler worked with such methods, bush does - many others did and will do. i will never be part of the stupid majority.
Two questions. First, did he make money trading those blocks? And second, does your example preclude the possibility of a non-"natural trader" from teaching himself to become a superior trader? I think that is the point of this thread. However, I will agree that some folks seem to "get it" sooner than others, while some never do so for one reason or another.
Yes let's. The way the biggest and the best make money is sort of the point. Steve Cohen is on record in Stock Market Wizards as saying his best trader is only right 62% of the time (or somewhere in that neighborhood). The 'broad range of approaches' that multi-billion dollar funds employ is a big reason they can achieve excellent returns at their mammoth size levels. They hire the best of the best, exploit every feasible opportunity they can find, and innovate their asses off. What a Cohen or a Jones or a Simons or a Shaw does is logically explainable. Their methods for making money and mitigating risk are relatively straightforward, even if the proprietary implementations of their various strategies are not. If you think of talent and hard work as energy, their dollar volume of profits (output) is commensurate with their massive ongoing input. It is possible to create a series of logically consistent mental models, working in combination, that capture the flavor of what the big hedgies do. On a smaller scale, a solo trader can earn triple digits in a year because size limitations do not constrain him. But some meaningful relationship between input and output is still required--and no one makes big money completely evenly, not even floor traders. The world is ruled by Pareto distributions and power laws. There is an illusion perpetuated by shaman types that opportunity is always present whenever market movement is present. But this assertion is not logical. Opportunity is harvested, not created at will. It waxes and wanes, and the harvesters must always and everywhere compete. By definition the pool of alpha is limited, just as any single food source in an ecosystem is limited. And of course, the stuff about driving a car to cross the finish line in 40 and Chubb guys running a marathon "in the insurance business" is pure and simple obfuscation. Speaking in tongues is not a rebuttal to clear-minded scientific objection.
I think a lot of stockpicking is experience and knowledge. I am a value investor and fundatmentals are huge. Picking a good company at a bargain is half the battle (or bad company overpriced, if making short play).
How to rid the world of all known diseases Monty Python's Flying Circus, Episode 28 (Cut to a sign saying 'How to do it'. Music. Pull out to reveal a 'Blue Peter' type set. Sitting casually on the edge of a dais are three presenters in sweaters - Noel, Jackie and Alan - plus a large bloodhound.) Alan: Hello. Noel: Hello. Alan: Well, last week we showed you how to become a gynaecologist. And this week on 'How to do it' we're going to show you how to play the flute, how to split an atom, how to construct a box girder bridge, how to irrigate the Sahara Desert and make vast new areas of land cultivatable, but first, here's Jackie to tell you all how to rid the world of all known diseases. Jackie: Hello, Alan. Alan: Hello, Jackie. Jackie: Well, first of all become a doctor and discover a marvellous cure for something, and then, when the medical profession really starts to take notice of you, you can jolly well tell them what to do and make sure they get everything right so there'll never be any diseases ever again. Alan: Thanks, Jackie. Great idea. How to play the flute. (picking up a flute) Well here we are. You blow there and you move your fingers up and down here. Noel: Great, great, Alan. Well, next week we'll be showing you how black and white people can live together in peace and harmony, and Alan will be over in Moscow showing us how to reconcile the Russians and the Chinese. So, until next week, cheerio. Alan: Bye. Jackie: Bye. (Children's music.)
Archie says: "On a smaller scale, a solo trader can earn triple digits in a year because size limitations do not constrain him. But some meaningful relationship between input and output is still required--and no one makes big money completely evenly, not even floor traders. The world is ruled by Pareto distributions and power laws. There is an illusion perpetuated by shaman types that opportunity is always present whenever market movement is present. But this assertion is not logical. Opportunity is harvested, not created at will. It waxes and wanes, and the harvesters must always and everywhere compete. By definition the pool of alpha is limited, just as any single food source in an ecosystem is limited. And of course, the stuff about driving a car to cross the finish line in 40 and Chubb guys running a marathon "in the insurance business" is pure and simple obfuscation. Speaking in tongues is not a rebuttal to clear-minded scientific objection." ---------------- Thank you for your three paragraphs. see attached my response was not acceptable
You are a non natural trader. There are many many people like you. You distinguish yourself in many many ways as you post. All of these things are going to be ever present. nothing that you acquire really goes a way it just is part of the picture and waxes and waned as archie says. Being a superior trader, in my opinion, does require a sort of rational context. In my experience of meeting an assortment of people, I find that there is a basis for this rational context. I guess it must come from somewhere. It does get "beat out" of a lot of people I am told. I do not think that it comes back. Superior is a funny place. You have definitely dictated what superior is by your commentary. The bridge from non natural to superior is available and the process for getting it in hand is apparently something that happens unexpectedly. It can't be expected to show up from what you say.