regarding the post where someone claims to be a genious..i have a friend who has a genious IQ and went to Yale(no bullshit). the guy can't find his way out of a friggin phone booth.I'll take a guy with ball's and persistence any day!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amK25dKbMrhQ&refer=home All BSDs will be rendered moot.
Try telling that to the Renaissance Technologies guys. They have about 80 PhDs over there and spend quite a bit of time quantifying imbalances. Few of them can hold a normal conversation but clear a white board and conversation gets markedly interesting. They must be doing something right overthere to be getting in the top 10 tier for returns...
I wouldn't expect it to. You want someone with "ball's and persistence". The $4B that was given to them to manage was done on the premise that they KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING. Ironically, most of them have had ZERO prior experience in the finance world. In other words, they're predominantly academics with rigid scientific frameworks. They approach the market as an unknown, and then back in to it's characteristics. Although, I for one don't find it to be the preferred approach, it's clear that anyone would prefer their 2500%+ 10 year return... It's hard for me to see how "balls and persistence" stacks up... Those type of characteristics seam better suited for the rodeo arena.
I was in Mensa and briefly a Mega member. >50% were critically anti-social, bordering on sociopathic.
"They approach the market as an unknown, and then back in to it's characteristics. " Beautifully said makosgu. But most approach the markets as though they know it and disregard it's simple characteristics. Now run those simple characteristics thru a genetic algorithm engine and you start seeing the repetitive characteristics. Blatant fools with big egos and newly minted ivy league degrees and "their" "anal"ysis.
Sorry, meant to reply to this post. Rentech blows through hundreds of failing models. None of us knows how much risk they're undertaking. Perhaps balls and persistence plays a major role.