Super Tuesday

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Epic, Mar 5, 2012.

  1. Epic


    I think Santorum is now starting to realize what a disadvantage he has. Frankly, he is very lucky that there are only 1/2 as many states voting tomorrow as there normally are. If this election was similar to past years, it would be over tomorrow. He is already having a hard time competing and there are only 4 states in play out of the 10 that vote.

    ID, MA, VA, and VT are Mitt's no problem, and by significant margins. Not only will Rick lose those, he won't even pick up more than a few delegates. Mitt will also probably take ND, but I think that Ron Paul will do well there.

    Gingrich is gonna take GA, but unfortunately for Rick he still has to compete there because of the weird way that they are allocating their delegates. 2 delegates to the winner of each district, and then 1 to the runner up, unless the winner gets a simple majority. It is unlikely in a 4 man race that Newt can get over 50% in many districts. And then the At-large delegates are completely proportional, but subject to a minimum 20%. So there are still about 20 delegates that Newt won't get, but to play, Rick must get at least 20%. Sucks to waste time competing in a state that you are going to lose handily.

    I also think that Newt wins AK. I think the Palins supporting him will give him the edge there since only something like 10,000 people vote.

    I thought that Rick had OK and TN locked in because he was sitting on 20 point leads 1 1/2 weeks ago. But Mitt's team went to work on them. The most recent polling has it at a dead tie in TN and closing fast in OK. I still think that OK goes to Santorum, because he had such a wide margin of support that it would be hard to lose. As of three days ago, he dropped from 43% down to 36%, while Mitt increased from 18% up to 26%. I think OK will end up something like 34% to 29%. TN will likely be a dead heat.

    Then there is OH, which was always going to be tight. But there is an unfortunate trend for Rick. Conventional wisdom says that Newt was the one splitting the vote with Rick, and that if Newt would get out of the race, then Rick could win. But Mitt is rising fast in OH, and Rick has plateaued. People are fleeing Newt, but they aren't going to Rick, they are going to Mitt. Unfortunately for Rick, Newt doesn't have any time or resource to try to get any of them back.

    If the weekend trends hold through tomorrow, then Mitt might end up eking out a win in TN and OH. It looks like Rick is going to be shut out in GA, and Mitt will pick up maybe 15-20 delegates there. So strangely enough, there is a good chance that Newt and Rick end up virtually tied after tomorrow.

    My expectation has it roughly like this.

    Mitt -- approx 400 delegates
    Rick -- approx 170
    Newt --approx 140
    Paul -- approx 60
  2. Unless Ron Paul is the nominee and wins the election, ALL OF AMERICA IS FUCKED!

    All the rest is just "circle-jerk rhetoric... America has no hope of coming back"...

    :mad: :mad:
  3. Brass


    Then perhaps you should pack your canned beans and leave once Paul doesn't get the nomination. Libby's bearer coupons will let you travel light.
  4. Epic


    IMO, it is naive to assume that Ron Paul could accomplish more than about 10% of what he talks about if he were elected.

    He would have the ability to withdraw troops and restructure the military, but it would pretty much end there.

    In terms of cuts in federal spending, he would have to get congress to go along with him. That would be a tall order since he is suggesting cutting government spending by 70%. I think he could probably jam through his headline $1T dollar reduction during the first year. But it would stop there.

    Outside of that, the President really doesn't have much power.
  5. Even if all he accomplished... wouldn't that be better than Odumbo's $10 Trillion deficit?

    We should reelect Odumbo "because Ron Paul could at best achieve a $1 Trillion reduction" ??

    WAKE UP BOZO... SOMEBODY needs to press for change in the proper direction or we're all doomed... Don't you get that?
  6. Epic


    When did I say that re-electing Obama was better?
  7. ===========
    but then Rick did /finished much better in Iowa than first reported:cool:
  8. Epic


    He finished better in Iowa because he spent every day for a couple months traveling the state. Not possible this time through.

    His real rise didn't come until after Newt flamed out after SC. This exodus away from Newt gave Rick a 3-state win a couple weeks ago. Mitt got complacent when Newt flamed out, and didn't give any attention to CO, MN, and MO until Rick was on a tear. Mitt was too focused on making sure that Newt couldn't get back in it.
  9. Epic


    I think that Rick is gonna find out how the free press first gives you hope and then destroys you. Just ask Huckabee. At first all the free press is welcomed because the candidate has no money and as the underdog everything that hits the air is positive.

    Then once you become the front runner, the media can't make a story about you gaining steam. That isn't exciting anymore. Now they can only grab attention by catching your weak moments.

    So instead of being the underdog true conservative rising star, Rick is now the kooky religious zealot who calls college graduates "snobby" and says the JFK religion speech made him want to throw up. There is a headline, and he doesn't have the resources to counter it.

    Mitt makes the same dumb statements, but he has the resources to limit the damage from the free press.
  10. I like RP, and you hate me. But the rules say the friend of your friend should also be your friend, or some derivation thereof. RP has great ideas, no wars, cut spending, all the things that I'm for. It really is too bad he just won't be able to make the nomination. Romney is 'Obama lite' as they say, Santorum is well, Santorum. I could actually vote for RP again.

    #10     Mar 5, 2012