I bought 40 steamrollers hoping to get lucky and catch someone trying to pick up pennies in front of the steam rollers. Come Monday I lose my bet or make a nice fat profit Lose 95 dollars on this bet (Commish etc) Or lets say I get lucky and Some Miracle happens Monday, Trump announces Yuge deal with China, everyone is happy and massive short squeeze. I could make 4000 dollars for every buck over 271. Capital at risk 95 dollars. Profits Unlimited. Hoping for a Black Swan event come Monday.
Want a better bet? Still risky, but it actually could pan out. Check out the 12/07/18 $3.50 calls on AK Steel. (AKS) They are $0.13 I honestly don't think you'll lose any money on these either way, and AKS can jump north of $4 in a blink if China comes around. (their meeting is on 12/01). Its a great bet if you're in the gambling mode.
Damn, that is a safe play. In futures I sneeze and I lose hundreds of bux. So you can risk just $100 to make thousands? How the hell does that work? The other question attached to that is...How often does that opportunity happen to come around?
These type of opportunities abound in the markets. It is the only way I trade anymore. Spent 12 years designing one model to capture these types of moves. Here is an example of my Crude 2018 Weekly, more or less a perfect distribution, in other words there was going to be huge move in Crude in the last quarter of this year. By the way my definition of a distribution is not the same as you find in the typical textbooks.
I wish retail traders would stop renaming fundamentals and cause massive confusion in conversations and invent their own slightly modified definitions instead. Like in this case: "Here's a more or less perfect mistribution!" "Wut? A distribution, like in probability? Doesn't look like one..." "No, no, MY potentially Nobel prize winner revolutionary definition of what the concept of a distribution is: mydistribution, shortly: mistribution". "Ohh... I get it now."
I think it's a great idea, and I like it. But the question in another is how to come to this, and how it really works. But still we know that there is no perfect scheme and even there may be a puncture, but so far everything is fine. Good luck)
If it causes fewer people who feel the need to redefine a fundamental aspect of probability mathematics to their own personal definition to share their "information", then we're probably all better off!