Look at sugar in 1995 (time of the Interview) and where it went Still a great interview though. Fun to look at market analysis from way back and seeing how it turned out.
The fundamentals remain strong, in a recession people buy sweet stuff.... -Poor Indian crop due.... -Hoarding by governments.... -Brazillian plantation fires..... I am happy to trade by technicals instead, if it walks like one,talks like one, quacks like one.... Come to think of it Sugar fundamentals have been strong since 18 December 1995 http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/6479
Hershey and a few other end users came out warning the government today about impending sugar shortages, etc. Rice anyone?? Let the Shorting begin!
Good discussion on sugar. Yes, supplies cut due to weather in India and Brazil but biggest reason is other side of the market - noncommercial. Noncomm position in last week's CFCT report showed this group holding a net-long of about 200,000 contracts while total open interest is less than 800,000 contracts. Market getting very one-sided. Also, supply-driven rallies usually short-term (spikes) as noted in other comments. Sign supply situation is changing will come as backwardation in deferred spreads begins to weaken. Interesting to note contango in October to March spread.