This is a broad question and one which could require a thesis to answer??? If you are only asking about using far out contracts in backwardation then you can indeed make a good profit without any spot price movement. You can essentially have a fall in the spot price of sugar between now and jul/13 and still make money. If you are asking about more than just this dynamic then you need to specify this more succinctly. You will need your own forecast for sugar prices which is well based in fundamentals and the historical price action of sugar. Ultimately a strategy like this could be traded with low risk if you believe sugar will not fall below a certain level so this could be a good play. If you want others to give you their forecast on sugar then you can only ask or search the web but you should have your own.
Wow. Any longs not paying attention in sugar the last two days is in a world of pain. I know sugar is prone to ridiculously high momentum moves... but I don't know if I've ever seen 25% in two days before. I want to see someone describe this thing using a normal distribution.
to all sugar #11 traders. I would buy oct 2011 sugar call option deep out of the money. maybe around late 30s or in the 40s strike price. try to get it less than $500 per option