Rising wedge? Seems more like an ascending triangle to me. Btw rising wedges, like ascending triangles, have very poor predictive powers.
>>>> Rising wedge? Seems more like an ascending triangle to me. Btw rising wedges, like ascending triangles, have very poor predictive powers. >>>> Well I'd sure be happy with an ascending triangle here The last couple of days are getting me jittery. fwiw Murphy (p144) thinks differently - triangles have very definite predictive powers. Do you know the whereabouts of any good (and free) #11 charts? cheers P
Oops, I was wrong in my wording, typo. It's more of a symmetrical triangle to me http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SU/76
thanks for the link. I have that already, but was wondering if there was a more comprehensive service you knew of - I subscribe to stockCharts but they don't do #11. Nice bounce up today ...
Check the fundamentals, not just the charts. DEmand for sugar is rising at breakneck speed in China, India, Vietnam, Pakistan and now, because of ethanol, the USA. US demand also said to be up as Atkins diet fad fades out. Poor crops in Vietnam, Australia, UK. EU subsidies stopped, helping raise prices. In Brazil, crops expanding, bearish, but more sugar being used for ethanol. US tariff on imported ethanol may be lifted (I'm not so sure, though, because the US farm lobby is so strong and electoral votes and representation in Congress favors small population states so strongly). India's exports to be large it seems, and exports may be possible. Bangladesh alone, facing a shortage, will literally eat this up, as Indian exports unlikely to be larger than 9 lakh tons, and Bangladesh needs to import 8 - 10 lakh tons. India and Brazil are the largest producers. That said, when sugar has rallied in the past, it was despite record production. 55% of India's sugar going to ethanol, and 5% blend of sugar ethanol mandatory in India. 20% mandatory in Brazil. Urbanization in Asia leads to increased demand and possibly decreasing supply. http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2 http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...0-45D1-985B-F2E53B996863}&siteid=google&dist=
Believe me, I do follow the fundamentals. But I find the charts invaluable for entry/exit points ... perhaps it's just habit from a few years in a market as overtly and massively manipulated as gold and silver. Perhaps it's also habit but, whenever the mainstream like Reuters etc get a hold of something it's too late and the action has already happened...a correction due now for a while? I dunno, I'm probably prepared to hang on as the fundamentals are, as you point out, superb (and the daily chart is interesting too). Excellent fundamentals, as you point out tho, and I suppose this is what got me interested in the sugar market in the first place. The ethanol thing is interesting - go here: http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm and listen to the April 22 '3rd hour' segment, there's a brief discussion on just this issue and this too http://www.financialsense.com/captain/log.html
Thanks for the links. You can find decent futures charts and options quotes at Futuresource. http://www.futuresource.com/ Also might check out crbtrader.com and barchart.com.
Never actually bought the the option. I now I will get totally screwed on my fill if I try to use options on the NYBOT. I think cotton has better prospects sugar for the next 5 months. I hope sugar keeps dropping so I can get in on this bull market.