ok, i see a monthly s& p 500 chart with a big 3/4 "M" formation. now lets put the puzzle together. mix all the world financial problems together with this technical formation on a monthly chart and what do you have ?? a bull market ? not quite . and my mathematical monthly time measure and you have a sell. bgp p.s. has anyone checked out the monthly s&p chart going back 15-20 yrs. and look at "C" ON MONTHLY CHART.
STONED, DO MOST PEOPLE SHOP AT TIFFANIES ? MAYBE 3%. IN THE REAL WORLD THE MIDDLE CLASS IS SPENT. BGP
I'm short on the YM as it broke into the 13,500 range. I could be wrong about this. I'll only know for sure when the markets re-open.
ark, my method using the rydex :rytpx is for holding a while. i do not predict monday will be down , but the s& p will trend lower over time. good luck bgp
I think you'll be good here....the YM was really looking weakish late afternoon. Also, not much buying power next week as most of the bulls are down in the islands for the holidays....while us bears freeze our butts off and eat a Bob Cratchet turkey for Christmas dinner.
I've been blunt about this. Index wise, the American middle-class is a non starter. The play there was long MCD and short SBUX. Lot more dollar menu stuff being moved than $5 Mocha Latte's. On to the next story. Global baby and Asia ain't even close to slowing down. Asians are smart, hard working and commodity deprived. They're going to be eating at your dinner table and guzzling up on your gasoline. Hence John Deere's stock price. While I'm obviously open to bullish arguments (heck I just made one) I'm presently and persistently short. These are my reasons. 1. The numero uno index in the world has made a multi-year double top. For what ever reason the mid 1550's in SPX have been resistance now twice in history. I suggest traders look at Dow charts from the mid 60's to 1982 and see how many times the Dow stopped around 1000. I am open though to NDX making a marginal new high. (2400-2500) 2. A relatively healthy correction in housing prices is a wild card crisis possibility. I see new job numbers trending lower, claims higher, a huge existing inventory of unsold homes, a credit market that's not interested in making loans to new buyers who would offer price support, large credit card debt and inflation in essentials eating into whatever elasticity that was left. The New America is not long stock (outside of passive 401k) rather they're long a house. And it's as expensive as they can carry. Nothing wrong with that. EXCEPT if you need to be a seller. Mucho problemo because not only are you stiffing a bond holder but voila' the comp's now show half your neighborhood's upside down. Don't think for a second that some of this pumped garbage in Brownseville couldn't get shaved by 60%. It'll be the equivalent of 2000-2002 on the economy. Housing prices trickle up. I could see it so clearly in Chicago. The Mexican immigrant bought the bungalow on the NW side from the Polish guy who moved to Park Ridge. The Park Ridge seller then could move up to Lake Forest. The empty nester LF guy was then able to buy a new condo downtown or one of those 1.5mil places in Naples or Scottsdale. That chain is breaking at the bottom. Everyone who's capable of being in is in and those who need out can't get lifted. It'll snowball. 3. While the woes of the "middle-class" have been thoroughly discounted by the market, I don't believe the emerging problems of older, wealthier American's have been yet priced in. Yes Stoney, in your NYC and my SoFla there's a glut of foreign luxury buyers. I'm not sure the Rolex salesman in Atlanta is enjoying the same benefits. The whammy of interest rates staying below real inflation means less spending from those who enjoy the most disposable income. I'm talking about the home on L.I., condo in Aventura set. They're the couple's eating at P.F. Chang's four nights a week and keeping Carnival in business. They consume 4x of the already tapped WMT shopper. 4. Stronger dollar and higher Treasury rates. The next move in the Dollar is higher. That'll choke some of those off shore buyers. And now that risk is trading at a premium it'll allow treasuries to focus on inflation with a more restrictive monetary policy forward and less on flight to quality. Sticking a wide credit spread upon a higher benchmark Treasury rate will a disaster for stocks. You guy's are looking for good news to sell into? how about this one: Investors next year abandon low/no dividend growth and suck up 11% yielding financials. Goodbye GOOG hello C. As the banks improve traders will think they'll lead the market higher. It'll be a fade. I'll discuss later but for now it's PERFECT beach weather!
"Illegal immigrants packing up and leaving Arizona" http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/12/22/immigrants.leave.ap/index.html "...the state's new employer-sanctions law, which takes effect January 1." :eek:
The sp500 trades in a historical price-earnings ratio range of about 14-30....Right now now it is in the 14 range. Bear markets do not start, nor have they ever( i beleive) started when thesp500 is at its PE low. SP500 was at PE ratio of 30 in 2000 before you know what happened. This is a very plain,simple,tried and true indicator for predicting bear/bull markets....beleive me even tho we have a housing disaster this market is not going down below 12500dow....There are excellent arguments that convince you and me that a tankage is inevitable etc but the the sp500 just doesnt nor has it ever broken PE 14 regardless of all the facts and arguments pointing to major catastrophe. After 18yrs of trading,watching,following markets i have never witnessed this sp500 PE ratio range been broken.It and the +60% bulls sentiment indicator(always precedes a big pullback) are the only 2 indicators that have not failed in my experience .Yet they are the 2 most widely ignored perhaps because they are too simple? I remember while the market rose ballistically from aug-oct the bull indicator was shooting up into the 60%+ range...Iwas practically screaming at those idiots on fast money and cramer who were applauding and rationalizing the markets strength with all kinds of esoteric technical/fundamental answers. Just after cramer said load up at dow 14100 cuz its going to 15000 by xmas, the market tanked 10%. This market is going nowhere but sideways in a choppy,volatile dow 12500-14000 range for the next few months.The low PE will keep the market from tanking and the financial bombs will keep it from breaking out.Everything just stays about in the middle. Good to trade.