No such thing as "definitely" in the markets. The big guys could very easily ramp the S&P to 1530ish by end of next week. They have plenty of cash now.
Most of the people that frequent ET seem to be oblivious to the above, all-important statement. They also have a great deal of difficulty looking at the market and and seeing CLEARLY what it is trying to tell them. For example, once people saw that it wasn't the end of the world for BSC and MS when the earnings came out, a "bid" went underneath this market. You can either be stupid and fight it. Or.... you can be smart and GO WITH IT!
You may want to study decades of market history and realize how much the seasonality is stacked against you... And then there is the technical side. The S&P seemed to be gunning for its gap around 1430 early in the week...but it suddenly reversed just before hitting it. Then it moved towards its gap above 1460, constantly rejecting efforts to bring it below 1450. If finally filled it today..and then kept going. That should tell you something. If not check out the post-correction action from summer '06 and March and late August of this year. I'm no permabull, and nothing is ever "obvious," but the clues we have are giving an upward bias. If we start getting close to new highs early next year, though, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another correction in the 10% (or more) range, though.
Problem is that everyone is seeing the same thing you are. People are not dumb. They know that this is a seasonally strong period and buy ahead of Xmas to sell after Xmas. The effect of seasonality gets pushed forward because everyone is aware of it and tries to front run the rally. We've seen the Santa rally. It happed this week. Next week, the dumb traders will buy hoping for a Santa rally while the smart traders who are already long will dump to those dumb traders. There is a lot of resistance just overhead. Gap has been filled and there is a big gap today that will most likely be filled in thin trading next week.
Exactly the same type of rhetoric that people posted here in March/August as the indexes were showing signs of bottoming. Not sure what happend to all those shorts who "sold rallies" as the S&P moved back up through 1400 both times. There's also a big influx of money coming into the market via 401(K) and other retirement plans, and as institutions do the buying side of their window dressing. A few people here on ET trying to short every rally aren't exactly going to impose their will on the market...
Yes, there are always a few perma-bears who pop up after every downswing and claim that it was the final proof that we're now in a bear market. Apparently these people don't look at monthly charts. Ah well, I guess we need these people who feel the need to trade what they think they know, as opposed to what they see.