Ahhhhh.....back to the beginning! I am already sorry about the coin toss question. The "justifying" the "accountability" were really my point. And I am sticking to my premise there no matter what happens with the coin toss PS: Where is Darkhorse? There is too much agreement going on here....
First off Lavish thanks for taking the time to reply... Secondly WOW! What a chart and that seems like some great trading you did on this stock.... Please forgive me as I am no longer used to 4 baggers in 3 months! I assumed that their might be a flaw in your risk and exposure calculations due to an excessive return in such short TF of only two months... As long as you are not betting the ranch on each play then I would say that is some great trading PEACE and good trading, Commisso __________________ Flowing like a river, mind of a pure mirror, responsive like an echo... ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I'm not...not in mom's account but the point I was making is that my own account is a different story. rs7 struck home with me because the "accountability" factor explains what is going on here. I can and did explain exactly why I made every move I made in that account. But why the heck am I holding two losing gold positions and a defense stock that has seen some small rally's but are all down now? uh, I dunno. They hold SOME promise? Yikes. Anyway, my sincere thanks to both of you for your insight. You'll have given me some excellent tools. If only I can figure out how to use them!
A suspicious young gambler named Reds, Sees a succession of twenty-five heads, Now the inclination would be tails, But common sense prevails, And he promptly reports to the Feds.
You will figure it all out over time. Just don't take anything single thing you read here and give it too much weight. There are no simple answers, and certainly any point can be argued (as we see all the time). This is what makes the market so unpredictable and difficult to trade. I would give this advice though. Always keep in mind that data is not information. And information is not knowledge. And opinions are always suspect. Learn what you can about how to accurately assess the data you get. Try and turn it into information. Try to make sense of that, and you approach knowledge. Then act on what you believe. Also, don't put too much weight in the jargon you hear from traders. My favorite false expression that I hear all the time is when someone says the reason the market (or a stock) is going (up/down), is there are more (buyers than sellers/sellers than buyers). There are always an equal number of both. So right there you have a false assumption that I must have heard about a million times. Someone said it, someone else thought it was clever, and so on. So just because you hear things repeatedly, don't assume they are true. Don't assume anything. Don't even assume I know what I am talking about. Do, however, use your best judgement, and be honest with yourself. Stay accountable to yourself and your convictions. Know what you know, and be open to everything else, but stay skeptical watchful and careful.
regarding coin flips and gambler's fallacy: the gambler's fallacy as viewed in light of coin flips is true. there is no reason for the tenth flip to be affected by the previous nine. however, pure application of the gambler's fallacy to market activity would negate the tendency of reversion to the mean. when cycles get out of whack, they tend to come back, for logical reasons. to agree 100% with the gamblers' fallacy yet to also recognize the validity of overbought/oversold conditions would represent a contradiction in terms. i submit that 99.5% of the time there is a rational directional bias to the market- a favorable probability distribution that is not 50/50. we just don't always know what that distribution is, so we deem random/unknowable that which WE don't know. p.s. if we want to get really wacky we can note that probability is actually just an ignorance hedge and does not exist at all
Probability as an ignorance hedge would imply a "newtonian" type deterministic market... In which if you knew every variable there is to know you could say with absolute certainty what its next move would be... It is impossible to know for certain what a market would do next because you would have to know every single participant involved at the given moment in time and then how every single participant would manifest their belief on the market... Lets just suppose you were to somehow know all this by the time you went to apply it everything would have changed because the market is not dead... the market is just as much a living breathing creature as every participant involved in it... It is organic... Therefore IMO probability as ignorance hedge misses the point entirely... PEACE and good trading, Commisso
even in a random world where no one knew the answer, probability still does not exist has anyone ever pinned down a likelihood? has anyone ever witnessed a nonoccurring event? while true, I admit that was posted more in fun than anything elseâ¦not all observations have immediate value except for the purpose of tweaking our brains