Be careful,though.It may need some time for the brit for a take-off run.So far it is all about bottom fishing.
Update for week 6 ending Sep 10, 2011 : +700$ for the week. 2nd profitable week out of 6 weeks! In terms of risk management, I am not happy with myself. Even though I ended up higher, it was fairly volatile with account equity moving between 3200 and 2400 three times during the week. Two times was on the day when SNB put the floor of 1.20 under Euro. I shorted Euro once it reached 1.42 after SNB's intervention but booked profits quickly. Had I just left it for 3 more days with a trailing stop, it would have made a whopping 3500$. Lesson learnt when you have a pretty clear view, then give multiple days to trade to run. Need to work on risk management next week. Should not be so much ups and downs. Weekly Stats: 1. Week PL: +700$ 2. Start Equity: 2.5k 3. End Equity: 3.2k 4. Maximum equity run-up: 3.2k 5. Max Win day as % of that day's start equity: 40% 6. Max Loss day as % of that day's start equity: -30% Below stats are from Journal start day: 1. Total PL: -4k 2. PF: 0.58 3. RoI: -58% 4. Max. DD: 82% 5. Current DD: 61% 6. # of winning days 50%, # of losing days 50% 7. Av. win day: 11% 8. Av. Loss day: -14%
Thanks for your post. I am 100% sure this strategy works, I have done many tests on reliability and robustness of the strategy. And yes, I am not executing it correctly. As of now, my account performance is not reflecting this strategy's performance rather is reflecting all the discretionary trades. From yesterday, I have been working on improving my record-keeping so that I can analyze my discretionary trades once I have some data. I have identified 15 different kind of set-ups that I will trade in a discretionary way and have numbered these set-ups from 1 to 15. So, starting from Monday, I will keep track of the number of trades I take daily under a given set-up. For some setups, I will have enough data within a fortnight to know my win/loss ratio and average win/average loss. For other setups, I will have enough data after a month or two. This data will help me 'correctly' position size the trades under different setups going forward - which till now I have been sizing using a seat of the pants approach - 'sadly and foolishly'. I have classified the 15 setups under 4 different 'risk' categories - Low, Moderate, High and V. High. I am defining 'risk' as the uncertainty of a particular trade in the category and by the possible speed/range of price movement against me. For example, if I take a trade after an economic report, its a high risk trade - because price can move against me fairly quickly and by a large amount. In my experience, out of 15 setups, 1 setup is a low risk setup, 5 setups are moderate risk setups, 4 setups are high risk setups and 1 setup is very high risk setup. I have never traded other 4 setups before - so I don't know how risky they are - I will put them in a risk category once I gain more experience with them.
Hello, hope you succeed. You just need to get your shit together. Do NOT trade with a big account, DO NOT move your target, DO NOT move your stop, DO EXACTLY what your proven strategy has shown. If you go above 5k, take it all out, you're one of those guys, the bigger account you give them the bigger they will lose. After a few months you can start to increase your size.
wow! do I read that correct?!? max win and loss days as a % of account, +40% and -30% !?!?!! your account won't last long with days like that! This thread could get interesting...!
I would say you need to reduce your position size by at least a factor of 10, but of course that would then reduce your profitability expectancy from 600% to 60% per annum. But what would you prefer 60% or broke?!