Do you, people, think i'll try to tell you my opinion? Tell me why the second poster in the most of the threads over the internet always replicates the first post in his\her reply ? If i get it anytime then i may start to post my replies.. Help me, please PS : Yes, all genius stuff are simple - not much to say when asked to describe it and yes - too much time paid to find it out .. hehe
Another very successful trader here at ET shared these exact words with me. We all have access to all the formulas and technical analysis tools but there's that extra inch, that extra 'it' that the successful traders have. That extra discretion is the difference between 5 figures and 7 figures. It is an extra sense. The good news is that it can be learned, thru sweat and blown up accounts. You don't have to blow up your account if you use good asset management, so, all that's left is sweat. Sitting behind a computer isn't grueling work. The key is to remain focused for as long as possible. It is very easy to get side tracked on a computer with all the audio and video clips everywhere and Myspace and Instant messaging programs. You can get more accomplished in 30 minutes by staying focused than you can in 8 hours of half ass reading. If a reasonably smart human being had an undeniable passion to become successful in the trading arena he could come here and learn how to make a 7-figure income. The information here is that valuable. The secret is to lock one to a couple posters who know what they're talking about and read all their posts. If you don't fully understand what that poster is saying you better read it 10 times and look up any words you're questionable about. What has helped me is reading Ken Wilber's "Kosmic Conciousness." I am exponentially increasing my abilities because of it. It is highly recommended.
I was focusing on the claim of the OP that trading is simple, which I agree with. What you have been describing is not what I would consider simple methodology. That's why I suggested another thread for the direction you seemed to be taking. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying you are not successful with what you do. Just saying your methods are far more complex than what I perceive the OP meant to imply. If we look at the full thread title, it seems as though you may have (at least to some extent) refuted the first half of the title, but not the second half. At any rate, good trading to you!!
The implication of the OP is that you can make big money in trading with "simple profitable method" type "systems" (buy when the green line goes above the red line, sell when the green line goes below the red line). In reality most successful traders don't trade using these simplistic canned "systems".
I think you are confusing 0 sum with edge. 0 sum simply means with every winner there is a loser, but negative edge which is what you are describing, you can be a winner in any given trade but still come out a overall net loser. Think roulette. You vs the house, but the house is the long term winner. Still 0 sum. If you execute a profitable arb, someone took the other side for a guaranteed loss. I don't see where you are going with this.
I suppose my methadology is not simple compared to, say, moving average crossovers.. or buying breakouts and just trying to ride the trend for as long as is possible... but it doesn't get too much simpler than analyzing supply and demand patterns that continuously recur because human nature doesn't change. That's all I do, and I provided some examples... because if your system doesn't accurately analyze the present supply/demand situation and consider what will happen if a single supply or demand variable changes, how profitable can it be over the long term? I'm familiar with a few other trading methods... I know some people who run relatively simple black boxes, some people who trade breakouts and just try to hold on as long as possible, and some trade similarly to me... all are in principle very simple... so, if my method isn't simple, can you please provide an example of a simple trading method that actually consistently extracts money from the markets? If you're paranoid about people taking your fills or undeservingly using your system without putting in the work, you can leave out a key point... but I honestly am unaware of how simple a chart-based system can be.
I have not read through many posts here, but I think its fair to say.... That even if a method is , in fact simple, the path to discover it is not. Therefore, its is not a 'simple' method at all but a simple SOLUTION to a COMPLEX problem. I'm sure many valuable patents fall into this category. No matter how simple a solution is, it should not be given away. Not to mention, that virtually NO winning method will survive public dissemination. The closest thing I know is the SOES Bandit game, and that was legislated away.