Successful Stop & Reverse - Semi Martingale Trend Following Strategy

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by jones247, Jun 21, 2008.

  1. Sherpa

    Sherpa

    I was thinking of trying this but only at large news events where the price will swing very fast. Sometimes in one direction then swings very quickly into the intended direction and limit it to 2 trades max

    I did back testing and just blindly picking a direction each day (London Open) works for a while then fails.
     
    #41     Mar 22, 2014
  2. I know this is an old threat, if anyone is still around, here s my two cents:

    1-martingale for ranging markets (best entered at the center of the range) and low volatility like Eur/GBP, Eur/CHF and anything moving in a range most of the time with low volatility. Risk management is best using 0.1%-1% of your cap per trade with an equity stop outside the trading range and with limited number of legs (the less the safer)

    2-reverse martingale for trending markets (best entered at an extreme os/ob level - major sup/res) and higher volatility like HGS, DAX, CAC, AEX, NKEI, CL, XAG, AUD/$, NZD/$ and GBP/NZD and anything trending strongly, with higher volatility. Risk management is best using the same 0.1%-1% per cap (and a trailing stop for all positions to protect your gains).

    The idea that you dont need to know where the market is going is not correct, it is important that you know what you are doing so your entry is in the right place using the proper asset class and either ride the wave or just trade the range.

    Hybrid approaches, i m not a big fan of hybrids and prefer specialization since it fine tunes your performance.

    The Challenge: Predicting the market correctly, is it going to range or trend? with higher or lower volatility?

    Whatever i wrote is theory, i have only tested half of this, martingale works in the short term but be careful not to get carried away, the longer i kept doing it the greater my risk and chances of loss (happened 3 times)

    martingale hedges get harder and riskier as you extend your strategy, even though you have a daily set consistent profit, your equity loss is expanding exponentially the moment the price starts ranging.

    Anti martingale works but opposite to martingale, the hardest part is the beginning, if you set your daily loss at say 0.1% then you know your monthly loss will not exceed 2% of accepted loss (reverse martingale hedges), even though you have a daily consistent set loss, your equity gains are expanding exponentially and need protection (trailing stop).

    I m still testing....
     
    #42     Oct 24, 2015