successful algo strategy

he or rather "it" can't count very well lol

 

How do you know it's a he? Did Oddball tell you?

 

f#ckin fixed it have a look, lol.

 

Ya, not much price patterns and logic in a maze.

 

While I am not a big fan of Van Tharp, but there is one thing he put very well - you experience whatever you believe in, unless you don't, in which case you won't, which means that you do.

Some popular examples - market is efficient / its' zero sum game / those who success are statical flukes / market is rigged / "HTF rob us all anyway" are all believes you can choose to believe in. If you do, that becomes your reality that reinforces itself.

If your model falls apart after launch the reasons for that are pretty finite and fall under two categories - model is no good or your executions are not matching the model.

If you run automated trading operation those are really the only 2 things to look at.
(a) Is your model staying within reasonable boundaries according to your original expectations
(b) Are your life executions matching your model

Most popular reasons for trading systems to fail in live trading are:

1. It was over-optimized and/or never tested out of sample
2. It has a bug (use unknown data at the time, trading outside of data bars etc)
3. Data quality is not good
4. Your cost estimates are incorrect
5. Your execution feasibility assumptions are incorrect (lack of liquidity/not supported orders by broker/slippage etc)
6. Market has fundamentally changed (probably the very last and rare reason for most people)

If you are willing to push forward you need to determine where your problem is exactly and keep iterating.

But realistically, doing something else might provide better return on your time, especially if you don't have sufficient capital to benefit from realistic returns.

PS. My journal about automated stocks trading. Rob Carver writes about automated futures trading.

Val

 

...so, rig it in your own favor.
Privatize the Profits, Socialize the Losses.
bailout baby.

 

I've been trading over 50 years. Two years ago, I started tweeting my live trades the day before I made them. I use a simple algorithm I have never sold to find trades. My profit after one year was 145%. In June, 2020, I started another experiment, still tweeting every trade, the day before I make it. That account is up 76% since June. Bottom line: It can be done. My Twitter handle is @RandomFour in case you want to see the trades.