Success stories: From 2K to 430K

Discussion in 'Options' started by Pekelo, Aug 12, 2018.

  1. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Posters keep asking here on ET from time to time: Is it possible to do this or make that much? The short answer is Yes.

    Of course there is also a long answer: But not for you. Just to show that it is possible, here is a guy from Reddit who did that, but he is a pro's pro and he did it with a no risk, screw you account, thus without pressure. His real account is way more conservative. Nevertheless he used research, due diligence and high leverage. In short he is skilled...



    "Proof/screenshots and write-ups detailing the climb in previous posts:

    Original post: $2,000 to $64,000

    First update: $2,000 to $200,000

    In the past two months, my positions have gained to just over $400,000. I really wanted to wait until I hit half a million to make an update post, but I'm probably going to de-risk a lot (I think Q1 2019 will have a lot of catalysts, which is probably when I'll re-enter), so this will likely be the last update for a while:

    • Winning positions were YELP, IAC, and AZO (basically the same positions I noted I was playing in the fourth bullet of my previous comment). KORS almost made me a ton of money, but came out to be a wash/small gain due to the June trade war bullshit. Lost about $50k on my shorter-term contracts, but made that back on my longer-term contracts in the past couple of days after earnings.

    • As mentioned previously, I'm not too bullish on the overall market going forward. I'll have most of my risk off the table by the end of the month. I have small plays in NVDA and AMAT earnings, but not much else that's too compelling. I think the market might climb through the rest of the month, but with increased volatility, then stagnate through year-end. I think heightened trade war tensions might create short-term downside vol, but nothing sustaining (hence the stagnation through year end). I believe the real negative catalyst will be sustained effects of rising interest rates, which seems to have been forgotten or buried in the past few months. I'm hoping to load up on downside bets around EOY or early 2019.

    • I'm guessing there's been a lot of discussion on TSLA around here, but I haven't read any of it, so here are my thoughts: TSLA will never go private. There's not a financier insane enough finance that deal. As a comparison, JWN (which is actually profitable) tried to go private last year, on Baa1 rating at about $9bn market cap, which required "only" a $2bn capital raise, WITH the backing of one of the most respected consumer/retail PE firms in the world, yet was unable to secure financing at an acceptable cost. Do you really think any bank is going to finance a $70bn mkt cap (at proposed $420 take-private price) Caa1 junk company that is burning through cash? It astounds me that TSLA would bounce so much on a random Musk tweet, which have been proven time and again to be nothing more than Elon's whims and fantasies, and severely out of touch with reality. This is further exacerbated by the fact that the existing bonds, currently trading well under par, have a CoC clause allowing bondholders to put the bonds at 101. The whole situation is such a circus. The only situation I see this potentially materializing is if SoftBank or one of the Saudi entities with too much cash to throw around decides to entertain the idea just for clout. Despite my pessimism, I hope it can stay bouyed for the next few months, because the combination of rising rates, maturing debt (Mar 19), inaccessibility to capital markets, and uncontrollable cash-burn will lead to the perfect storm of a very severe correction around the time I'm hoping the markets will turn aroud.

    • To answer common questions that came up after my previous post: 1. My background is in IB, HF, and PE, with the majority of my experince in PE 2. I don't have any reading recommendations or suggestions on how to learn. Bascially everything I know about and all the tools I use when investing, I picked up on the job. 3. I don't have any thoughts on random XYZ ticker that you DM me. I have a very small universe of tickers that I keep apprised of, and those are the only tickers I know intimately well. 4. My style is a hybrid approach; screen for fundamentals, and monitor 'technicals' and potential catalysts for entries. I don't have much else to say on how/what I screen for, etc.
      "
     
  2. Pekelo,

    Thanks for the example.

    Do you have any other examples of a trader(s)actually trading a small account to big money? Future trading ?? This what I want to see.

    The example you displayed details a investor betting on stock earnings estimates.

    Thanks
     
  3. destriero

    destriero

    You have no way to know whether this is a sim-account or real. He could be buying bids and selling offers, who knows.
     
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  4. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    On Reddit I think I saw 2-3 similar stories, but IIRC they were all option traders...

    I guess it is much harder to do it with futures. If you hit 4 earnings correctly with options in a row (a 1/16th possibility, so not impossible) you could make a 20-30 times return.

    With futures you have to keep trading well and leveraging up way more often than just 4 times...It also takes much longer time...
     
  5. There are always a few stores about someone who "hit a home run". I recently got an email touting someone's "advice" on the markets who claims to have "gone all-in" on a $1 stock which he eventually sold for $54. Don't know whether that's truth or balloon juice, of course. But the notion that anyone should pay this "blind dog who found a bone" for his investment advice is ridiculous.

    What should you do? Learn to trade for a "conservatively traded, 20%/year while protecting capital" return. That's PLENTY enough of a challenge. If you learn to do that, you'll figure out how to lever up and make more.
     
  6. Scataphagos,

    Thaank you
     
  7. destriero,

    I agree with you. I just don't understand why noone post broker statements or tax returns. I sure would if I was showing others I make money trading. Not sure what the big deal is.
     
  8. destriero

    destriero


    An iOS screenshot showing balances? One sim goes long, one sim goes short into earnings.
     
  9. Screen shots just show an account, no real facts behind them. Also If I gave $1000 to 100 trades one of them would turn it into huge money. Does not mean he is a great long-term trader, just means he/she was the one.

    Newsletters use the same shotgun tactics. Create several newsletter with different picks and send them all out. After a period of time one will do really well. Use that as the track record to sign up people for money and then just churn and burn.

    No one who can trade really well would ever sell a newsletter or advisory UNLESS they were burnt out and just did not want to trade anymore. Easy to just write up a few trade ideas and hit send then put in actual stress and money and you always have suckers willing to sign up.
     
    speedo and SimpleMeLike like this.
  10. El OchoCinco,

    Yes, i agree. One time I was in a paid trading guru service. Wasting money and time. Now that I look back, i never seen any previous broker statements or tax returns.

    I think asking for tax returns and broker statements is important.
     
    #10     Aug 12, 2018