success in trading

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by marketsurfer, Feb 18, 2003.

  1. Well...they didn't fool me..I didn't click on it..and I ain't been here...that's my story and I'm sticking to it!
     
    #21     Feb 25, 2003
  2. There are trends ? What a revelation ! Indeed you should say that to the academy and see if they don't mock you. Because of market efficiency postulat Market officials won't admit ANY TREND. In fact many traders don't believe in true trend because if there is a trend then you should be able to predict it and until now the vast majority pretend they don't even try to predict since it doesn't exist. And statisticians say that people confuse trend in stock market with persistency phenomena in statistics (see the levy law).

    As for me sure there is a true trend not just persistency but I can say that only because of my deterministic model. Before I had no proof (and I keep the proof for me I won't write any article for Sciences magazines as some scientist researchers suggested me to do so) and anybody who pretends there is a trend should know that there are an enormous amount of official researchs in that field denying existence of trend (at least they say no statistical evidence) and supporting the market efficiency hypothesis (which is different from the Random Walk Hypothesis which has been abandonned finally).

     
    #22     Feb 25, 2003
  3. They deny the existance of long term trend.. in its exact replication, but short term trend is alive and well.. Markets are pretty efficient... I'll be the first to admit, but their are still those times when you know from watching whats going to happen short term.

    We as a human race are pretty dam predictable.. Thats why sex sells, markets rally (Hearding behavior), and proof is in the perception of whats presented.

    but in the final analysis, "Its all relative"


     
    #23     Feb 25, 2003