Subscribing to Market Timers - doesn't work???

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TraderZones, Apr 29, 2008.

  1. This is an interesting analysis on what happens when traders try to rely on the advice of Market Timers.

    From Hulberts (strategy tracking service), you see each year’s most successful newsletter, going back to 1981, along with that newsletter’s one-year performance the NEXT year:

    Year Newsletter % gain % gain next year
    1981 The Zweig Forecast 24.2 22.8
    1982 On Markets 85.1 6.9
    1983 The Addison Report 59.0 (4.6)
    1984 Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor 95.2 (19.5)
    1985 McKeever Strategy Letter 99.3 55.3
    1986 Bernie Schaeffer’s Option Advisor 462.2 88.1
    1987 Puetz Investment Report 663.7 (94.8)
    1988 McKeever Strategy Letter 133.4 (55.8)
    1989 The Granville Market Letter 367.9 (70.1)
    1990 Your Window Into the Future 111.1 12.5
    1991 OTC Insight 148.7 12.2
    1992 The Turnaround Letter 63.4 52.6
    1993 Mutual Fund Technical Trader 54.6 (28.1)
    1994 Seasonal Trade Portfolio 118.5 (90.4)
    1995 Medical Technology Stock Letter 107.7 17.2
    1996 The Prudent Speculator 58.1 42.9
    1997 The Granville Market Letter 89.4 (31.9)
    1998 The Pure Fundamentalist 83.8 56.1
    1999 Technology Investing 157.0 (34.8)
    2000 182.0 (87.7)
    2001 Coolcat Explosive Small Cap Growth Stock Report 77.7 (5.7)

    Although a little dated, the results aren’t pretty. The 21 year average was MINUS 31.4 percent a year.

    So $10,000 in Jan 1981 became $2.32 in Dec 2002.
  2. So following newsletters, on average, isn't healthy for your balance sheet? I'm, genuinely, interested because I'm looking to enter the markets and I have no previous trading background. Is it buy and hold which works out better than trading for the average investor? If so should I, right now, buy a mixture of emerging markets and traditional stocks or just buy what Buffett holds?

    Or both of those?
  3. Newsletters are garbage. Is that a surprise?
  4. A fella just needs to follow the right Market timer...

    Rennick out:cool:

    ps.Long live the "Ball"
  5. Newsletters are worthless?

    Guess it depends on who you are. Didn't Marty Schwartz rely on Zweig, at least for a while? Been a few years since I read the book last.
  6. Back in the 90s I subscribed to Stan Weinstiens newsletter for several years and found it to be very helpful.

    I havent subscribed to anything since then though.
  7. My take is, that > 99% of advisories will not outperform over the LONG term. Finding those that do is exceptionally difficult.

    Buy and hold is better than chasing charlatans...
  8. solyaris


    How is it called those emails that the banks send you each morning with the news of yesterday, what's gonna happen today, and that stuff? Is it any of it available for free in the internet for european equities? Thanks.
  9. I think this site is amazing , I just signed up look to see what happens tommorow
  10. lindq


    #10     Jun 1, 2008