In the last chart there is an interesting divergence: between 2001 and 2003 unemployment rose from 3.9% to 6.3% but mortgage delinquencies actually fell - and kept falling even further after that. That was due to Greenspan's slashing rates to create the real estate bubble, now bursting so spectacularly. Could it be that we are in for a long period of "pent-up" mortgage defaults, above and beyond what would be normally correlated with unemployment? ------------------------------- Could be but it is my understanding that in the past, delinquencies were correlated with unemployement and interest rates and there's not enough historical data to draw a forward conclusion. Then you have to factor in how the unemployment numbers are calculated in the present compared to the past, what are the true figures? It's a mess and wtfdik.