Study: the yield curve is about to invert. What this means for stocks

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Troy Bombardia, Aug 27, 2018.

  1. The 10 year - 2 year yield curve is about to invert.

    When this happens, the stock market usually keeps going up (contrary to popular belief, which states that this is bearish or stocks)


    https://bullmarkets.co/study-yield-invert/
     
  2. Yes I did it
     
  3. 2rosy

    2rosy

  4. drcha

    drcha

    Yes, I read another article on this some time back, which I believe covered the late 20th century and early 21st. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4130984-yield-curve-investments

    Author claimed a 1-to-1 correspondence between recessions and inversions. In other words, he said that an inversion leads to a recession. He conceded that it could take a year or two after inversion for recession to start, so I think such information is not too useful to an investor. But the other side of the coin is that every recession has been preceded by an inversion. So, as long as there's no inversion, one can follow Chuck Prince and keep partying until the music stops.

    I don't know any easy way to check these facts myself, but don't have reason to doubt them. What do others think?