Study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes

Tsing Tao · Jun 26, 2017

Max E. said:
Those kind of guys live in the world of "Theories" and "Hypotheticals" and never dip their foot in the water to see the way the real world works.
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You've described Piezoe and his ilk quite well.

newwurldmn · Jun 27, 2017

Max E. said:
If anything economists are worse man, i remember when i was getting my degree in economics, at the same time i was trading.

Some dickwad university prof was trying to tell our class that if the fed raises interest rates the bond market has to follow, I literally showed this guy a chart of TLT sky rocketing the day rates got increased, cause i was just a trader by that point. Those kind of guys live in the world of "Theories" and "Hypotheticals" and never dip their foot in the water to see the way the real world works.

This Economics prof gave me 12 million different reasons why that could happen but didnt realise that the bond market like every market reacts based on future expectations. It was pretty funny. This guy may have been the dumbest person i ever met.
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Perhaps the professor was simplifying the discussion to teach a basic concept to the class?

Spike Trader · Jun 27, 2017

Yeah . . . one chart and from a professor he moffs into an idiot.

Banjo · Jun 27, 2017

Want a $1 Million Paycheck? Skip College and Go Work in a Lumberyard
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/art...heck-skip-college-and-go-work-in-a-lumberyard

Tom B · Jul 1, 2017

What Are They Hiding? Democrat State Officials Refuse to Assist President Trump’s Voter Fraud Investigation

Jim Hoft Jul 1st, 2017

Democrat state officials in various states across the union are refusing to assist President Trump in his voter fraud investigation. Democrat politicians from California, Connecticut, Virginia and even Kentucky are not assisting in the President’s efforts to ensure US elections are fraud free:

Connecticut Secretary of the State Denise Merrill said in a statement that her office would provide such information “in the spirit of transparency.” But, suggesting some of the requested data would not be sharable under state law, she said she would ensure “the privacy of voters is honored by withholding protected data.” Merrill also voiced concern that state officials “have not been told precisely what the Commission is looking for.”

Virginia and California were more brazen in their response.

McAuliffe, a former Democratic National Committee chairman and longtime Clinton family ally, said, “At best this commission was set up as a pretext to validate Donald Trump’s alternative election facts, and at worst is a tool to commit large-scale voter suppression.”

The governor declared he would not “divert resources” to this.

California Secretary of State Alex Padilla struck a similar chord, saying in a statement he would “not provide sensitive voter information to a commission that has already inaccurately passed judgment that millions of Californians voted illegally.”

He added, “California’s participation would only serve to legitimize the false and already debunked claims of massive voter fraud made by the President, the Vice President, and Mr. Kobach.”

Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes – a Democratic official in a state with a Republican governor – also said she does “not intend to release Kentuckians’ sensitive personal data to the federal government.”

“Kentucky will not aid a commission that is at best a waste of taxpayer money and at worst an attempt to legitimize voter suppression efforts across the country,” she said in a statement.

The officials preventing the President from ensuring the integrity of the election are no doubt the same individuals who claim the President’s accusations of voter fraud are not true.
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Bill Mitchell

✔@mitchellvii
CA, VA and KY claim Trump is lying about illegals voting, and yet refuse to cooperate with a probe that would prove their allegations.

3:02 PM - 30 Jun 2017

The Gateway Pundit reported that in Detroit, Michigan, 37% of the precincts had fraudulent voting practices which were uncovered during Hillary Clinton’s recounts requested by Jill Stein. We also reported on a massive voter fraud incident in Nevada where half of the 19,000 votes in one district alone were determined to be fraudulent. Other instances in Detroit were identified during the recounts.

A study from the state of Kansas also found that there are over 7 million voter registrations that appear in two states simultaneously.

The states not providing for the President’s review are most likely guilty of allowing individuals to vote who are not eligible (e.g. illegal aliens, dead people, felons, or people from other states) or guilty of providing for other forms of Democrat voter fraud.

President Trump tweeted about this on Saturday morning.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...t-president-trumps-voter-fraud-investigation/

AAAintheBeltway · Jul 2, 2017

You have to love how shameless the democrats are in their hypocrisy. They cheered the federal government essentially taking over the voting laws of southern states and the only recorded instance of them objecting to a federal court getting involved in an election is Bush v. Gore.

Now suddenly that their vote fraud operation is under scrutiny, they are zealous about protecting "sensitive" voter information.

You can tell just how important vote fraud and changing the electorate through massive immigration are to democrats by the ferocity of their pushback.

Cuddles · Mar 24, 2022

gwb-trading said:
Study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/19/noncitizen-illegal-vote-number-higher-than-estimat/

A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at postelection polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

Last month, the president signed an executive order setting up a commission to try to find on-the-ground truth in illegal voting. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence, the panel also will look at outdated voter lists across the nation with names of dead people and multiple registrants.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.

Mr. Agresti lays out his reasoning in a series of complicated calculations, which he compares to U.S. Census Bureau figures for noncitizen residents. Polls show noncitizens vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.

He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.

“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.

He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.

Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.

“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.

Some of the polled noncitizens denied they were registered to vote when publicly available databases show that they were, he said.

This conclusion, he said, is backed by the Harvard/YouGov study’s findings of consumer and vote data matches for 90 percent of participants but only 41 percent of noncitizen respondents.

As to why his numbers are higher than the besieged ODU professors’ study, Mr. Agresti said: “I calculated the margin of sampling error in a more cautious way to ensure greater confidence in the results, and I used a slightly different methodology that I think is more accurate.”

There is hard evidence outside of polling that noncitizens do vote. Conservative activists have conducted limited investigations in Maryland and Virginia that found thousands of aliens were registered.

These inquiries, such as comparing noncitizen jury pool rejections to voter rolls, captured just a snapshot. But conservatives say they show there is a much broader problem that a comprehensive probe by the Pence commission could uncover.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens.
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Here's another study for you GWB:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ssqu.12906
Abstract
Objectives

Support for Donald has been linked to religious commitments and education, though the issue of how cognitive sophistication may play a role in his support has rarely been examined. This study explores how cognitive sophistication and religion influenced political orientations and Trump voting.

Methods
Data from the 2018 General Social Survey are examined. Logistic regression is used to predict voting and choice. Structural equation models are estimated to examine the interrelationships between cognitive ability, education, religious commitments, political orientations, and the Trump vote.

Results
Cognitive sophistication was found to have a positive effect on voting, but a negative effect on choosing Trump. The influence of cognitive sophistication works through its support for secular beliefs and opposition to biblical inerrancy, influencing Republican partisanship and political conservatism that favored Trump.

Conclusions
Cognitive sophistication and educational attainment are important for influencing political commitments and the Trump vote, and the effect of cognitive sophistication is entwined with its negative association with religious fundamentalism and positive association with secularism.

Cuddles · Mar 25, 2022

gwb-trading said:
Study supports Trump: 5.7 million noncitizens may have cast illegal votes
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/19/noncitizen-illegal-vote-number-higher-than-estimat/

A research group in New Jersey has taken a fresh look at postelection polling data and concluded that the number of noncitizens voting illegally in U.S. elections is likely far greater than previous estimates.

As many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election, which put Barack Obama in the White House.

The research organization Just Facts, a widely cited, independent think tank led by self-described conservatives and libertarians, revealed its number-crunching in a report on national immigration.

Just Facts President James D. Agresti and his team looked at data from an extensive Harvard/YouGov study that every two years questions a sample size of tens of thousands of voters. Some acknowledge they are noncitizens and are thus ineligible to vote.

Just Facts’ conclusions confront both sides in the illegal voting debate: those who say it happens a lot and those who say the problem nonexistent.

In one camp, there are groundbreaking studies by professors at Old Dominion University in Virginia who attempted to compile scientifically derived illegal voting numbers using the Harvard data, called the Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

On the other side are the professors who conducted the study and contended that “zero” noncitizens of about 18 million adults in the U.S. voted. The liberal mainstream media adopted this position and proclaimed the Old Dominion work was “debunked.”

The ODU professors, who stand by their work in the face of attacks from the left, concluded that in 2008 as few as 38,000 and as many as 2.8 million noncitizens voted.

Mr. Agresti’s analysis of the same polling data settled on much higher numbers. He estimated that as many as 7.9 million noncitizens were illegally registered that year and 594,000 to 5.7 million voted.

These numbers are more in line with the unverified estimates given by President Trump, who said the number of ballots cast by noncitizens was the reason he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

Last month, the president signed an executive order setting up a commission to try to find on-the-ground truth in illegal voting. Headed by Vice President Mike Pence, the panel also will look at outdated voter lists across the nation with names of dead people and multiple registrants.

For 2012, Just Facts said, 3.2 million to 5.6 million noncitizens were registered to vote and 1.2 million to 3.6 million of them voted.

Mr. Agresti lays out his reasoning in a series of complicated calculations, which he compares to U.S. Census Bureau figures for noncitizen residents. Polls show noncitizens vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

“The details are technical, but the figure I calculated is based on a more conservative margin of sampling error and a methodology that I consider to be more accurate,” Mr. Agresti told The Washington Times.

He believes the Harvard/YouGov researchers based their “zero” claim on two flawed assumptions. First, they assumed that people who said they voted and identified a candidate did not vote unless their names showed up in a database.

“This is illogical, because such databases are unlikely to verify voters who use fraudulent identities, and millions of noncitizens use them,” Mr. Agresti said.

He cites government audits that show large numbers of noncitizens use false IDs and Social Security numbers in order to function in the U.S., which could include voting.

Second, Harvard assumed that respondent citizens sometimes misidentified themselves as noncitizens but also concluded that noncitizens never misidentified themselves as citizens, Mr. Agresti said.

“This is irrational, because illegal immigrants often claim they are citizens in order to conceal the fact that they are in the U.S. illegally,” he said.

Some of the polled noncitizens denied they were registered to vote when publicly available databases show that they were, he said.

This conclusion, he said, is backed by the Harvard/YouGov study’s findings of consumer and vote data matches for 90 percent of participants but only 41 percent of noncitizen respondents.

As to why his numbers are higher than the besieged ODU professors’ study, Mr. Agresti said: “I calculated the margin of sampling error in a more cautious way to ensure greater confidence in the results, and I used a slightly different methodology that I think is more accurate.”

There is hard evidence outside of polling that noncitizens do vote. Conservative activists have conducted limited investigations in Maryland and Virginia that found thousands of aliens were registered.

These inquiries, such as comparing noncitizen jury pool rejections to voter rolls, captured just a snapshot. But conservatives say they show there is a much broader problem that a comprehensive probe by the Pence commission could uncover.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation, which fights voter fraud, released one of its most comprehensive reports last month.

Its investigation found that Virginia removed more than 5,500 noncitizens from voter lists, including 1,852 people who had cast more than 7,000 ballots. The people volunteered their status, most likely when acquiring driver’s licenses. The Public Interest Legal Foundation said there are likely many more illegal voters on Virginia’s rolls who have never admitted to being noncitizens.
More...

your boi's on it GWB: