Study: Gas will soon be at $10/gallon

Discussion in 'Trading' started by capmac, Apr 28, 2008.

  1. gnome

    gnome

    He's already shown his "leadership" many times over... deserves to be tarred & feathered for it.
     
    #81     Jun 6, 2008
  2. capmac

    capmac

    Gas pushes above $4, oil falls on profit-taking

    Monday June 9, 11:46 am ET
    By John Wilen, AP Business Writer

    Gas prices pushed to new record above $4; oil prices retreated as investors took profits

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Retail gas prices rose further above a national average of $4 Monday, and are likely to keep rising as distributors and retailers hike prices in response to last week's unprecedented oil price rally. Oil futures, meanwhile, retreated as investors sold to lock in profits from the run-up, though oil prices may be headed even higher.

    At the pump, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas rose 1.8 cents overnight to a record $4.023, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices first moved above $4 nationally on Sunday, though they've been higher than that in many parts of the country for weeks.

    If oil prices remain near $139 a barrel, last week's record high, gas prices will likely rise another dime in coming days, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J.

    "The numbers do have some catching up to do," Kloza said. "There's a bit of a tape delay that happens with gasoline."

    Consumers are cutting back on their consumption of gas in response to the high prices, but gasoline producers have little choice but to keep raising prices when the cost of their chief raw material -- crude oil -- rises. Friday's jump of nearly $11 in oil prices put new life into gas prices, which had appeared to be topping out.

    At $150 a barrel -- the Morgan Stanley price prediction that helped ignite Friday's oil rally -- gas would cost about $4.40 a gallon, Kloza said.

    Gas prices often peak around Memorial Day, then retreat over the course of the summer. But this is far from a normal year. Oil prices have been marching steadily higher since last fall, and occasional price corrections of $10, or more, have been followed by rapid rebounds to new heights. Last week, oil prices rose nearly 14 percent in two days, trading as high as $139.12 a barrel, after slumping more than $13 from a previous record high.

    On Tuesday, light, sweet crude for July delivery fell $2.74 to $135.80 a barrel in volatile trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    "There's some profit taking going on, which is understandable after that sort of move," said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn.

    One of the factors that underpinned Friday's rally -- an Israeli cabinet minister's comment that his nation might attack Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program -- appeared to dissipate over the weekend as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert distanced himself from the comments and other officials noted that the minister, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, had not been expressing official government policy.

    But other factors support high oil prices. An explosion last week at a natural gas production facility in Australia has boosted demand for diesel by that country's mining sector, Armstrong said. In Nigeria, a major U.S. oil supplier, a strike later this week could take 450,000 barrels in daily oil supplies off the market, Armstrong said. Both events highlight how tight oil supplies are.

    The upward swing in crude began Thursday, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank could increase interest rates in July to counter rising inflation.

    "Trichet has managed what no war, no hurricanes, no OPEC has ever managed to do," analyst Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix in Switzerland said in a research report. Trichet's statements "shocked the financial system," Jakob said, and sent the dollar falling against the euro.

    Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the greenback weakens. On Monday, the effect reversed; the dollar gained ground, making oil less effective as an inflation hedge. Also, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive to investors overseas.

    Some analysts see warning signs in Friday's bold oil price jump.

    "It was a freakish oil market Friday as the market's worst fears -- some real and some imagined -- exploded into a rhapsody of wild buying," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago, in a research note.

    The $10.75 move had some of the hallmarks of a "blow-off top," Armstrong said, or a rapid, explosive run-up in prices that's followed by steep declines. Still, it's far to early to tell for sure, he added.

    "You never know you've been in a bubble until it's gone," Armstrong said.

    In other Nymex trading Monday, July gasoline futures fell 10.75 cents to $3.4404 a gallon, and July heating oil futures fell 6 cents to $3.914 a gallon. July natural gas futures rose 1.6 cents to $12.709 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    In London, July Brent crude fell $2.94 to $134.75 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

    Associated Press Writer Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, and AP Business Writer Malcolm Foster in Bangkok, Thailand, contributed to this report.
     
    #82     Jun 9, 2008
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    Is anyone old enough to remember when General Motors bought up the trolley companies and ripped up the tracks? Few cared. What is good for General Motors is Good for the America!

    Remember when the railroads lost interest in passenger service in the face of massive subsidies for highways and airports? We overlooked the creative accounting used to attribute operating costs to passenger operations and profits to freight hauling, for good reason. We are Americans. We don't ride on commie trains and we needed those thousands of miles of rail rights of way serving every US city, town, and hamlet to build our McMansions and WalMarts. We need progress, not silly rail rights of way.

    Remember when General Motors said nobody wants those little cars, Americans want big cars. And they repeated the mantra year, after year, after year in the face of increasing Volkswagen sales year, after year, after year? No one really cared, because General Motors knows what we want, and we know what we want: Big Cars!


    Remember when, by miracle, AmTrak started and the bus, and car companies and airlines together with conservatives in congress, and every right-thinking American too, did everything in our power to kill it, but couldn't. So we decided to cripple it by supporting retired military fossils and old railroad executives that had no interest in passenger rail to sit on the board. We are still trying to kill AmTrak, because we are Americans and Amtrak makes no sense. When we want to go somewhere we drive a big car or we fly a big plane. We do not drive little cars, and we especially do not ride in a commie, socialist train. That's Un-American. We are for progress.

    Remember when that flaming commie, socialist, George McGovern, wanted to start a major government initiative to rebuild the American passenger rail system? We hated him for it, and let him know at the polls.

    Remember when that, crazed-killer-releasing, flaming socialist Michael Dukakis tried to champion high-speed passenger rail as energy efficient transportation. We hated him too for his communist ways and told him so at the polls. We are Americans. We like big cars and lots of people to stay in prison where they belong.

    We are after all Americans, We need Big Cars, Big Planes, and Big Houses. We can't be bothered with efficiencies. We demand cheap gas!

    :D
     
    #83     Jun 9, 2008
  4. gnome

    gnome

    Apparently so do Indians. When the government withdrew part of the subsidy and caused gasoline to increase by 11%, the people nearly rioted.
     
    #84     Jun 9, 2008
  5. really now?

    seems like the American consumer has the tar and no feathers to boot....

    isn't it surprising that in the absence of Socialist and Communist countries reporting their actual demand upon the global markets for oil, that the Goldmans, the Sachs, the Lehmans, the Morgans, the Stanleys and all those other simpathizers have been substituting whatever numbers they want to, to justify the run ups that we have had.

    isn't it interesting that the Saudis are conveening a conference to bring out in the open all the true known demand that is effecting these markets.

    isn't it interesting instead of Bush-II showing his leadership and concern for the American people he has choosen to remain silent

    isn't it interesting that the markets, under real disclosure and action by one of the most powerful oil ministers, has fallen some $4+ today?

    hmmmmm,

    anyone else see what opportunity for legitimacy was lost here?

    anyone else see who has taken up the mantle of leadership and honesty?
     
    #85     Jun 9, 2008
  6. FxPro2

    FxPro2

    all these years of an idiotic energy policy.....


    chickens coming home to roost
     
    #86     Jun 9, 2008
  7. The key word being 'nearly' rioted. We all know Indians don't riot easily. It takes something serious like Richard Gere kissing Shilpa Shetty.

    *******************************************
    4/16/07

    Hollywood actor Richard Gere incited India to riots Monday. The actor-turned activist has raised protests from many in India, after an AIDS awareness event on Sunday night. During the event in New Delhi, Gere embraced actress Shilpa Shetty and kissed her cheeks repeatedly.


    <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1951890>
     
    #87     Jun 9, 2008
  8. capmac

    capmac

    Oil prices soar after Energy Department report

    Wednesday June 11, 10:49 am ET
    By John Wilen, AP Business Writer

    Oil prices soar to near $137 a barrel after Energy Department reports falling supplies

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices are soaring in response to a government report that the nation's oil inventories fell more than expected last week.

    Light, sweet crude for July delivery is up $4.50 at $135.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, prices approached $137.

    The Energy Department said oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected a much smaller decline of about 1.4 million barrels.
     
    #88     Jun 11, 2008
  9. capmac

    capmac

    Oil hits record near $140 a barrel on dollar, fire

    Monday June 16, 10:10 am ET
    By John Wilen, AP Business Writer

    Oil futures shoot to a record near $140 a barrel on falling dollar, North Sea fire

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil futures hit a record near $140 a barrel Monday as investors shrugged off Saudi Arabia's promise to boost production and instead focused on a weaker dollar. Retail gas prices rose to a record $4.08 a gallon.

    Light, sweet crude for July delivery soared to a trading record of $139.89 before retreating to trade up $3.33 at $138.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    Many investors buy commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation when the dollar falls. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies. Many analysts believe the dollar's protracted decline is a major factor behind oil's doubling in price over the past year.

    The euro bought $1.5502, a sizable increase from $1.5354 late Friday in New York. The British pound rose to $1.9668 versus $1.9469 in New York.

    Also supporting prices was an overnight fire at a StatoilHydro ASA drilling rig in the North Sea, which could affect as much as 150,000 barrels of daily oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn.

    But prices of North Sea-produced Brent crude oil, while higher, were lagging Nymex crude's advance, suggesting to analysts that the dollar was the main driver of Monday's rally. In London, August Brent crude futures rose $3.01 to $138.12 a barrel.

    "We have a weaker U.S. dollar, and the buyers are out in force right now," said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

    Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, told U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon over the weekend that it would boost output by 200,000 barrels a day, or by 2 percent, from June to July. In May, the kingdom raised production by 300,000 barrels a day.

    The latest promise of a production increase by the kingdom was largely ignored by traders Monday amid strong global demand and falling production elsewhere.

    Cordier said Saudi Arabia has "to increase by north of 1 million barrels per day" to have an impact on prices, "and the market doesn't think they have it."

    At the pump, meanwhile, the national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.3 cent overnight to its latest milestone, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices are following crude prices higher, and likely have several more cents to rise before catching up with oil's latest advance.

    If oil prices pass $140 and head even higher, the pain consumers are feeling at the pump will intensify.

    Diesel fuel prices held steady Monday at a record $4.797 a gallon. High prices for diesel, used to transport most of the world's food, are pushing food prices higher, putting even more pressure on consumers.

    In other Nymex trading, July gasoline futures rose 7.26 cents to $3.5352 a gallon, while July heating oil futures rose 9.6 cents to $3.9328 a gallon.

    July natural gas futures rose 25.2 cents to $12.877 per 1,000 cubic feet.

    Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said Monday that natural gas production from a project in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico has been restored, hitting a gross rate of about 900 million cubic feet per day. Output from the Independence Hub was halted April 8 after a pipeline leak was found.

    AP Business Writer John Porretto, in Houston, and Associated Press writers George Jahn in Vienna, Austria, and Eileen Ng in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, contributed to this report.
     
    #89     Jun 16, 2008
  10. Premium gasoline is selling for over $5/gal in parts of California.
     
    #90     Jun 16, 2008