Findings from this study: 1. Corporate earnings growth tends to peak before the stock market does. So even if this is peak earnings growth (right now), the stock market probably hasn't peaked in this bull cycle. 2. Sometimes the absolute value of corporate earnings leads the stock market. Sometimes the stock market leads corporate earnings. There is no definitive relationship as to which one leads/lags first In other words, it's better to focus on the economic data when predicting the stock market than corporate earnings. https://bullmarkets.co/study-do-corporate-earnings-lead-the-stock-market/