Study: a rising and strong U.S. Dollar isn’t consistently bearish for the stock market

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Troy Bombardia, May 22, 2018.

  1. The U.S. Dollar has been rising recently, which reminds some investors of the 2014-2015 USD spike that led to a “significant correction” for the U.S. stock market in 2015-2016.

    For starters, it’s important to put things into perspective. The U.S. Dollar’s recent “surge” is more like a small rally.

    But more importantly, the stock market doesn't always go up when the USD surges.

    https://bullmarkets.co/study-rising-usd-isnt-bearish-stocks/
     
  2. “The correlation is mostly random.”

    Somewhat true, except during a risk off move it’s a risk off currency. Contributing to its appreciation during risk off periods, and depreciation during risk on periods. surprised the writer of the piece wasn’t aware of this. You can actually see USD strength began right around the time of the increased volatility at the beginning of the year.

    Not saying other factors don’t play into currency trends(mainly interest rates) at the same time.
     
  3. zdreg

    zdreg

    exactly. it a retracement blip in a crumbling fiat currency. this is not to say thatthe euro is any better.
     
  4. To top it off most dollar indexes weight the EUR/USD as the biggest part of their indexes often more than half.
     

  5. So nice of you to forget the 2008 stock market crash and flight to safe haven, USD
     
    FXbeachbum likes this.
  6. eurusdzn

    eurusdzn

    Pretty much all speculative assets will be sold as dirt amd exchanged for the shiny US debt and dollar.