Struggling Emini Traders

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by NihabaAshi, Oct 5, 2002.

  1. Traders often find themselves using stats of how many Emini traders fail and how many succeed.

    Based on my personal contacts and online contacts...most Emini traders FAIL and so few succeed.

    First of all...there's a huge problem with ET members and other popular discussion forums:

    There are A LOT of traders losing money providing advice to other traders losing money.

    Hmmm...what's wrong with that picture. Looks like a cycle many traders should stay out of.

    So...what's the solution to stay away from this cycle?

    The next trader that tells you how to trade, tells you to try this indicator, tells you to use this indicator that way, tells you I make this many points, tells you I've been successful this length of time...

    STOP and think for once in your life and then do this...

    Ask that trader to meet you in a live-realtime chat (tons of free software out there to do such a meeting) and post just a FEW trades within seconds after they occur so that you can see with your own eyes...

    their success.

    If they are unwilling...tell them to SHUT UP.

    Here's what I know...there are traders out their doing +20 points per trading day (not every day) via multiple contracts.

    I have NEVER met (doesn't mean he/she is not out there) a trader successfully making +20 points per trading day via 1 contract alone...NEVER.

    Note: I have met a few that say they do such and come across as honest...but they have never shown me a verifiable trading record nor proved it to me in live-realtime...those doing +20 points via 1 contract per trading day...

    a trader doesn't have to reveal his/hers secret method via posting for one day his/her entries and exits in live-realtime.

    Of all the successful traders that I know (over 50)...only 3 have been able to prove to me via an actual verifiable trading record or via live-realtime chat that not only are they making a lot of Emini points every trading day...

    they've proved to me they actually have a well-defined trading plan (without revealing their secrets or edge) while trading multiple contracts.

    Here's something all you Emini traders should know but maybe don't spend a lot of time dealing with...

    the one commonality I've personally noticed among those that are successful or proved to me they are successful...THEY ARE MENTALLY PREPARED TO TRADE.

    Another commonality...they don't spend a lot of time posting at discussion boards.

    It's not about indicators, its not about the chart program, its not about some intelligent post at ET or anywhere else, its not about something on your monitor...

    It's mainly about your mental state of mind while trading.

    So...all you traders that can't make it or aren't going to make it...the potential to be successful most likely never existed in the first place.

    Further...the few of you that are successful...if you can't or don't want to prove it....SHUT UP.

    The few of you that are successful and are willing to prove it...I wish you the best and happy trading.

    P.S. I'm offering no solution in this post to all you traders losing your hard-earned money.

    I ask you to spend more time with your "state of mind" to succeed and less time taking advice from other traders either losing money or not even trading at all.

    Therefore, you'll be better off seeing a psych-therapist to find out what's keeping you from success...instead of wasting a lot of valuable time taking advice from another trader that's not making a living as a successful Emini trader.

  2. I really don't see a lot of people posting indicator advice. If anything, that sort of thing is absent from these forums. I would say that you can't find 10 posts in the last 500 that elucidate the nuances of a particular indicator, or even the general benefits thereof. I would speculate that you cannot find even one.

    But you describe the main reason why I think there "seem" to be so few successful emini traders. Your description of mental state and multiple contracts reflects one "commonality": UNDERCAPITALIZATION!

    It was suggested to me on another thread that a system that required multiple contracts in play simultaneously would rule out the majority of players on the thread.

    Clearly, the popularity of emini futures is huge in large part because of the extremely low margin requirements. Some accounts I have seen can be opened with $2000. That doesn't leave a lot of room for losses.

    As a result, a trader "treading on thin ice" to begin with will not make the proper decisions. Trading under duress is a recipe for disaster. Low margin requirements guarantees two things: huge participation and huge failure rates.
  3. Yannis



    I found your post valuable in that it documents yet another angle of the trading struggle, but you may be reaching the wrong conclusions, imo. Here are some of my thoughts on this:

    This is a discussion board, and everybody who has something to say about trading is welcome to express their opinion - and you are welcome not to take their opinion as gospel;

    New traders do not fail in larger percentage that any other new businesses (e.g., restaurants) fail - the approximate 90/10 distribution is the success bar that every entrepreneur in this country has to measure up against;

    This board has a lot of "advice" but in the middle of all that material, several of us have managed to find lots of useful information - not to mention that some postings are downright funny;

    There are many trading chatrooms, some of them free, where people post their trades in real time - I have done it many times and found it very useful - people can go to some of them and form their own conclusions;

    No one should be expected to "prove" anything - just talk about their experiences in trading, ask questions, contribute their perspective;

    I do trade the e-minis and am doing well, but do not need, or intend, to prove it to anyone - I just come here to talk with fellow traders and, no, I will not shut up;

    Yes, psychology is very important in trading, but only a part of the trader's arsenal - general market knowledge, trading technique and execution skills are also extremely important, not to mention capitalization;

    I hope this helps and wish you the best in your trading :)
  4. InandLong,

    Good points.

    Think of trading a lot like dating and picking up women. There are some people who are totally clueless about women. They could read all these books on how to pick up women at a club, then frequent a site called "Elite Dater" and hear about how all these pimps are picking up 20 women a night on average. Then he is confused and upset because his own experiences suggest that he's not having the same success they are.

    So then he posts some messages and gets a response from a lot of hard-core pimps. They all tell him that he needs an edge -- and that edge is confidence. So then he goes back home and reads more books on improving confidence, and then goes to the club to try it out.

    He approaches a lady and they start interacting. Instead of drawing off natural confidence, he starts trying to remember situational episodes in the book and does well for a few minutes. Then the lady does something that all women do -- something unpredictable. He then tries to remember something he heard or read elsewhere on how to handle this problem and fails because he is trying to remember a series of protocols instead of living in the moment.

    That, in my opinion, is the biggest problem with anything in life. You have "naturals" who are constantly "writing the book" as they go along and then you have others who are more artificial who are "reading from the book" as they go along.

    You cannot go into a dynamic system with set protocols and expect to be as successful as another person who enters that same system with "flexible protocols" that constantly adapt to the moment at hand.

    Just as there is a distinct difference between real confidence in dating and faked confidence, there is also a real difference between disciplined trading and systematic "faked" discipline trading.

    I do believe that any person can overcome a challenge, but the real problem comes when a person realizes that it is their perceptions that need to be changed and not the external reality.

    The guy who is going to the clubs and never picking up women needs to change his own perceptions about what it is he is exactly looking for.

    The best pimps treat it as a numbers game -- and they treat it lightheartedly. I think a lot of various examples of different situations in life can be carried over from one element to the next.

    My biggest problem was unrealistic expectations coming into this game. I have sinced realized that it would be more advantageous for me to treat trading more light-heartedly -- especially when it comes to trading with real money.

    I realize that the difference between paper-trading and trading with real money is similar to the difference between imagining what you'll say and do when you meet a girl at a club and then actually being in the club and doing it. The difference between the two is that one allows us to "imagine countless scenerios" without fear of rejection while the other places us in a moment where we are on the spot and any actions we take have immediate feedback to our deepest fears and hopes.

    For over the past month, I have done very well paper-trading, even when considering slippage, etc. However, like I've just said, anyone can get laid in their sleep.
  5. "There are A LOT of traders losing money providing advice to other traders losing money."

    its even worse.we have people who have never even traded giving all kinds of advice about trading.
  6. Yannis


    OK Aphie, take a cold shower now and call us in the morning, you hear? :)
  7. Ditch


    So Aphie also has a problem getting laid:p :p :p
  8. I need an ice-cube bath.
  9. A thought occurs to me about those who want to say something to the effect of "if you haven't traded, you shouldn't give trading advice" or "if you aren't making money trading, you shouldn't talk about trading." And I do not mean this in any critical sense, only food for thought.

    If those who haven't actually done a thing should not be giving advice on how to do the thing, then what of our many esteemed business school professors who have never actually owned a business, or marketed a product? Should we discard them and replace them with only those people who have actually owned a business and marketed a product?

    Or how about most of our professional sports coaches? Most of them were not professional players for one reason or another. Yet they are able to successfully tell others how to do it.

    There is a phrase that I heard long ago, and tended to use it with sarcasm, but I see now that I was wrong doing so. It is: "Those who can - do; those who can't teach."

  10. well, i wouldn't say MOST weren't professional players at some time. i think if you check you'll find that most were.

    as for why do people teach instead of do? there are many reasons (many perfectly good reasons.) however, when it comes to trading, i dunno, i just feel differently about it. i find it very difficult to listen to the opinion of someone that doesn't trade (and no, this is not yet another shot at aphie - who i actually won't do to badly, if he keep his head straight.) i would need one hell of a reason to be listening, that's for sure..
    #10     Oct 5, 2002