Did you guys check this out? I don't know 100% about their other views but their take on Iran is right on the money: Stratfor doesn't believe there is a "war premium" on oil prices, but an "Iran premium." Iranian oil production is a profitable enterprise in the current commodity environment. Nuclear threat is more of a bargaining chip to get the US government to bend on Iraq, which has been unsuccessful. Reality of the matter is that if Iran was really trying to build a nuclear device, they would be doing it in complete secret. It makes no sense to announce plans to develop one. Even if Iran was building nuclear weapons, Stratfor does not believe that the country would halt oil production - they need the revenue too much. Their take on China is also interesting. Surprisingly along the lines of Gavkel the Swedish research firm I posted from a few days ago.