Strategy performances decline over time?

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by TZT, Jun 13, 2019.

  1. drmark27

    drmark27

    I think you should expect degradation over time, but that doesn't mean the system can't make money. If you find that backtested, profitable strategies regularly fail to make money in live trading, then I would suspect your process. One thing I have seen clearly over the years is that backtesting is not backtesting. Much of what I have seen called backtesting is nothing less than an insult to the whole endeavor.


     
    #21     Jun 29, 2019
    wrbtrader likes this.
  2. qlai

    qlai

    Would you mind expanding on this please?
     
    #22     Jun 29, 2019
  3. comagnum

    comagnum

    Last edited: Jun 29, 2019
    #23     Jun 29, 2019
    TZT likes this.
  4. drmark27

    drmark27

    I was referring to things like failing to account for transaction fees, data mining, future leaks, overfitting, and small sample sizes.
     
    #24     Jul 1, 2019
    userque, wrbtrader and qlai like this.
  5. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    :rolleyes: Errrrr, the only thing in that list that is [mildly, possibly, not-definitively] pertinent to backtesting would be transaction fees. Issues with data mining, future leaks, over-fitting, and small samples -- these are modeling issues: the horse to the backtesting cart.
    They're important, for sure :thumbsup::thumbsup: -- but are settled or not before you get to the backtesting.
     
    #25     Jul 1, 2019
  6. drmark27

    drmark27

    In my world that's just semantics, but I won't argue with you.

     
    #26     Jul 2, 2019
  7. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    You criticized others for sloppy language, but that doesn't apply to you? o_O

    If you were the manager of such a person, who would you hire? :confused:;) :D
     
    #27     Jul 2, 2019
  8. IamaMars

    IamaMars

    This is a very important observation that every trader should take into consideration. Change is inevitable, and even strategies do change. Using old-age trading strategies in the current forex market is a sure way of failing, if you don't make the necessary adjustments to it. The same applies to the future, since strategies that work now may not work then. A trader should always test and prove a strategy's winning potential on demo before going live with it
     
    #28     Jul 3, 2019
    TZT and wrbtrader like this.
  9. maler

    maler

    It's normal. It would be arrogant to believe no one else can find
    the juicy bits you are feasting on. In time, someone that tolerates
    more pain for less reward will come along to eat your lunch.
    Time to search for another morsel?
     
    #29     Jul 4, 2019
    TZT and tommcginnis like this.
  10. One can refer to strategic performance reports which allows a trader to review a trading system or live trading results so that they can evaluate these trading systems. Anyways you can maintain it ,if the key metrics are considered which are :
    • Total net profit
    • Profit factor
    • Percent profitable
    • Average trade net profit
    • Maximum draw down
    However, Back testing method can be used to measure the performance of trading system.
     
    #30     Jul 11, 2019