Strategy on RUT. Search for the best system.

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by gg12, Feb 1, 2007.

  1. gg12

    gg12

    Transactions

    7) IWM JUL07 88 C 2 0.1000 -20.00 -1.50
    8) IWM JUL07 83 C -1 1.2400 124.00 -1.00
    9) IWM JUL07 81 C 2 2.3500 -470.00 -1.50
    10) IWM JUL07 81 C -2 2.4000 480.00 -1.50

    11) IWM JUL07 82 C 2 1.7000 -340.00 -1.50
    12) IWM JUL07 82 C -2 1.7500 350.00 -1.50

    Total 124.00 -8.50
    7 - 10) Total 115.5 (incl. commission)

    Test Trade IWM

    13) IWM 30 82.5400 -2,476.20 -1.00
    14) IWM -30 82.5800 2,477.40 -1.00

    Total 1.20 -2.00
    13 - 14) Total -0.80 (incl. commission)

    1 - 6) Total 228.00 (incl. commission)

    1 - 14) Total 342.70 (incl. commission)

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Positions

    IOWGE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 C -2 1.761879 100 -352.38
    IOWGJ 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 88 C 7 0.167906 100 117.53
    IOWSE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 P -1 1.52888 100 -152.89
    IOWSY 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 77 P 1 0.319742 100 31.97

    Total -355.77

    Profit -13.07
     
    #81     Jun 28, 2007
  2. gg12

    gg12

    Transactions

    1 - 14) Total 342.70 (incl. commission)


    Positions

    IOWGE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 C -2 1.669251 100 -333.85
    IOWGJ 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 88 C 7 0.127752 100 89.43
    IOWSE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 P -1 1.557444 100 -155.74
    IOWSY 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 77 P 1 0.335604 100 33.56


    Total -366.60



    Profit -23.90
     
    #82     Jul 1, 2007
  3. gg12

    gg12

    Transactions

    1 - 14) Total 342.70 (incl. commission)


    Positions

    IOWGE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 C -2 1.669251 100 -333.85
    IOWGJ 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 88 C 7 0.127752 100 89.43
    IOWSE 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 83 P -1 1.557444 100 -155.74
    IOWSY 2007-07-21 IWM JUL07 77 P 1 0.335604 100 33.56


    Total -366.60



    Profit -23.90
     
    #83     Jul 1, 2007
  4. gg12

    gg12

    IWM

    Two systems on the .5 point grid (10 days)

    Up 231

    Short up move at 1 (2*.5) points, sl 1.5 (3*.5)points, pt .5 (1*.5)points

    Dn S121; 231

    Go with down move with stop order at .5 points, profit target at 1 point (+0.5 points) and stop loss at .5 points.
    After that use the same system as described above for the the Up moves.


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Current signal (system Dn 231) is up with limit 83 SL 82.5 and PT 83.5.
     
    #84     Jul 1, 2007
  5. gg12

    gg12

    Two identical systems for IWM 1 point grid for 2 month

    Up S121; 2x1
    Dn S121; 2x1

    Actual signal is down 84 with target 82.
     
    #85     Jul 1, 2007
  6. gg12

    gg12

    For the 12 month 2 point scenario there are two systems

    Up S2x1 3/3 - buy breakouts
    Dn 121 6/8 - buy dips

    That's very interesting, because it confirms the old rule for uptrends. BUY BREAKOUT TO THE TOP AND BUY DIPS.

    That strategy made 9*2 points vs. BUY AND HOLD with 7*2 points.
     
    #86     Jul 1, 2007
  7. gg12

    gg12

    Attached a 'static' capital intense approach.

    Buying mulitple 'lots' at fixed levels

    a) Dn 12x
    b) Dn 13x

    gains each 10*2 points. But there is much capital needed. In addition it's harder to make money management. Losses will increase non-linear on that approach.

    1
    2 + 1 = 3
    3 + 3 = 6
    4 + 6 = 10
    5 +10 = 15
     
    #87     Jul 1, 2007
  8. gg12

    gg12

    Attached a 'static' capital intense approach.

    Buying mulitple 'lots' at fixed levels

    a) Dn 12x
    b) Dn 13x

    gains each 10*2 points. But there is much capital needed. In addition it's harder to make money management. Losses will increase non-linear on that approach.

    1
    2 + 1 = 3
    3 + 3 = 6
    4 + 6 = 10
    5 +10 = 15
     
    #88     Jul 1, 2007
  9. gg12

    gg12

    Two systems 5 point grid 4 years

    Up S121
    Dn 1x1 (with x set to 2)

    System is expecting a sideway movement and will enter at 80 (limit) with a stop of 75 and a PT of 90.
     
    #89     Jul 1, 2007
  10. gg12

    gg12

    To summarize

    Long term trend (4y) is up, but no position is on (waiting for a dip to 80).

    Mid term trend (1y) is up, but no position is on (waiting for a dip to 82).

    Short term trend (2M) is sideways with a short signal on (PT 82).

    Day trend (10D) is sideways with a long signal on (PT 83.5).


    Systems beat buy and hold.
    Systems beat multi lots play.


    For my tactics that means

    - minimal long put protection
    - no excess call (only for protection)

    => I have too many long calls
     
    #90     Jul 1, 2007