Acrary said: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- âthe markets are mostly inefficient and chaotic with small periods of stable predictability but with large periods of stable recurring strategic themes.â -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For a problem to be well solved it must first be well defined. Acrary may have found a way to make a profit, but it is very limited and the more he tries to refine it the less opportunity it will provide because the premise is fundamentally flawed. Slight chaos is a sign of health. If a heartbeat does not exhibit slight chaos there is heart disease and if brainwaves do not demonstrate slight chaos there is a severe problem e.g. epilepsy. But mostly chaotic is unhealthy. The markets are like a healthy living entity and are mostly predictable with chaos occurring within limited boundaries. Inefficient - yes. With large periods of stable recurring strategic themes - yes. But mostly chaotic with small periods of predictability - nope. However this is reinventing the wheel.
Strategic vision is the backtesting, theorising, blurred vision, rose tinted spectacles stage where you are busy doing lots of stuff, you are exchanging ideas on ET, you are feeling excited, you are feeling self important. You dream big dreams. You may even do some boasting or feuding on ET to give yourself a repeated buzz. All of this sustained self deceit may take quite a long time. Essentially you are not bright enough to know you are going nowhere. The next stage is tactical. All your jacking around has started to give you a hollow realization and you leave the General's chair and take the plunge into actual combat. Whatever you have or haven't been doing you now do a little more: perhaps some trading with trades that only lose. Or perhaps you are doing some trading mixing winners and losers. Either way you are still going nowhere. This lasts until you money gets too low or you get sick of what is to you the apparent chaos of prices and trading The finale. This is where you, or most, sooner or later, say, 'Fuck it!Fuck this!.' Since life for many is only a confirmation and rationalization of being a loser, you must return to your comfort zone. This is where you can blame the rich and powerful and live a life with a whole array of excuses. You take up your station again as one of the millions of drones that make up most of society. You slink off out of sight. As the voice-over on one video game used to put it: 'You are finished here'.
Have you found a decent way of classifying these common behavior days as they're happening? This is the hard part. I have spent thousands of hours on this problem. The work is all in the classification of the days and the conditions that exist in them. Once you do this the models are easy to build.
Yes, I have developed a way to classify price movements. A volatility-neutral way to analyze price behavior, if you wish. But, since the most people here are cynics and poets, I won't disclose it. Let's say I'm tired of people being unobjective.