Hey, Obama weâre just not that into you -- why voters are divorcing the president By Dr. Keith Ablow Millions of voters may now have packed their bags and moved out, after a whirlwind romance with President Obama and a relatively short marriage marred by unemployment, constant arguing, name-calling, signs he never much liked them, anyhow , and one of those terrible nights... According to the latest Gallup poll, Mitt Romney has leapt from a significant deficit to a 2-point lead in the wake of his widely lauded Presidential debate performance. He is simultaneously closing in on Obamaâs lead in several swing states. This dramatic change may turn out to be even more meaningful when viewed through a lens that properly values the psychological power of incumbency. A shift by the electorate away from an incumbent president has more in common with divorce than it does with opting against a second date. When Americans bond with a president for more than three years, the decision to back a different candidate often comes only after much soul-searching and an extreme level of discomfort. When real disappointment sets in, and voters finally voice their intention to support the challenger, their decision can be permanent. They may be saying that the relationship is, finally, beyond repairâthat there is no going back. In my practice, marriages rarely end over a single event or disappointment. But, one event can, indeed, represent a breaking point when dissatisfaction has been simmering for months or years. The first presidential debate was such an event. For the sake of metaphor, think of any friend who has called you and, after a tumultuous, but passionate, relationship, finally, finally, come to the realization that her husband isnât the man she thought he wasâat all. It isnât that her husband hasnât failed her before; he has. But something happens to crystallize her intent to move onâa particularly harsh comment from him, a single and obvious lie (one too many). And when she announces she is leaving, and you hear resolve, rather than wistfulness, in her voice, you know she is not turning back. She isnât making a show of packing her bags; sheâs moving out. Finally. Well, millions of voters may now have packed their bags and moved out, after a whirlwind romance with President Obama and a relatively short marriage marred by unemployment, constant arguing, name-calling, signs he never much liked them, anyhow (at least not the patriotic ones), and one of those terrible nights (debate night) when (in those words that any man who has gravely disappointed a woman has heard) he âhad nothing to say for himself.â Sure, some incumbents bounce back from deficits (double entendre intended), but this analysis of the president permanently plummeting in polls may be even more true given that tens of millions of Americans didnât just support him; they actually fell a little in love with him. They swooned over him. Now, the honeymoon seems finally to be over. And, for anyone who has tried going on a second honeymoon, theyâll tell you that you really canât. It just isnât the same. Moreover, I believe many Americans who fell for President Obama based their relationship with him on more than just agreeing with his policies. In my opinion, they also valued the relationship because it symbolized the wonderful distance America has traveled away from prejudice. While no one would argue there might be some Americans who refused to vote for the president because of his color, no one can credibly argue that some Americans didnât vote for him precisely because he is a person of color. And these voters, especially, I believe, felt real regret telling pollsters that President Obama had lost their votesâregret for what might have been: not only the election of the first black president of the United States (a truly inspiring event), but the re-election of a black president they had sincerely hoped would be successful. Once that hope was shattered by reality, and these folks actually admitted itânot only to themselves, but to pollsters on the telephoneâit may have become, almost instantly, impossible to restore. Crushes based on appearance tend to fall like lead balloons when the good-lookinâ person who made your heart race humiliates you in front of your friends. And millions of people who had hopped into bed with the president hoping for the best in 2008 must have felt pretty humiliated waking up the morning after the first presidential debate.
Jobless Claims Bloomberg "Highlights Big improvement in jobless claims may be tied in part to the week's seasonal adjustment and will in any case have to be confirmed by improvement in subsequent weeks. Claims fell to 339,000 in the October 6 week for a 30,000 decline that's the biggest since July. The 339,000 level is the best reading of the recovery! The four-week average is down 11,500 to 364,000 and is now trending more than 10,000 below the month-ago comparison in what points to improvement for both payroll growth and the unemployment rate. "A possible issue skewing the number is the adjustment which expected a big swing for the first week of the quarter that didn't happen. Next week's report will help clear up this issue. Continuing claims continue to move lower, down 15,000 in data for the September 29 week to 3.273 million with the four-week average down 12,000 to 3.279 million. But the unemployment rate for insured workers isn't improving, holding at 2.6 percent where it's been since mid-March. " <img src="http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=23334">
By now, these claims/unemployment numbers have gone from too mathematical and esoteric to downright peculiar and therefore suspect. As long as Romney can keep reminding Americans that 23 million of us are unhappy with the job market, his campaign will be alright. The rest is kind of obscure for most people.
Put your glasses on, he was in charge as of 1/2009 - not to forget that the Dems took Congress over on 1/2007.
Put your glasses on, Goofy, according to the chart you posted (did I mention that it's a good chart?), the employment situation was deteriorating from 2003. By the way, great chart!
After W fixed the mess from Clinton etc (market bubble burst, 9/11, near recession situation) and turned the chart back downwards as any decent president would do (improvement is visible at about 1/2003), the situation got better until the Dems took over the Congress, early 2007. But the explosion upwards that's still unresolved started on Obama's watch, and it's still threatening us, the man is clueless how to fix it.