I see a lot of posts talking about how this or that rally (usually) or decline (less frequently) aren't "real" or are somehow the result of "manipulation". Unless you have some secret kind of trading account that pays you double if you make a trade on a "real" move, who cares? The thing that should or should not make a move "real" or "fake" is if it triggers your rules to enter or exit a trade. If you're looking for some other kind of validation of your views of the market, you should probably not be trading with real money because you'll ultimately end up "revenge trading" it all away. I recently had to sit with no position through a couple of nice declines that would, in hindsight, have been excellent short trades, but, since neither of them triggered a trade for me, I ignored them. I didn't say they weren't "real" moves, only that they weren't actionable for me. I eventually did get my short trade and it worked just fine, even if it took a little longer for the trigger to arrive than I originally would have guessed.
Agree. All moves are real as long as price really changes. "Real or not" issue sounds more as an excuse for poor trading.
Agreed. This is the difference between seeing things the way they really are, and seeing things the way you want them to be. Questioning whether something you witnessed was real is a function of the mind making assumptions about the past or worrying about the future; neither of which you have any control over. Take action now. Use "The 4 Agreements" to assist in your un-learning process, and get on with your trading and your life.
Fine post. The example of not catching the short moves yet understanding that with his parameters they were not "his" moves to catch sums it up perfectly. Having a sound plan and sticking to it produces real money and that is the point.
Not 100% at time of entry, any trade for probability sake has a 50/50 chance of being successful. That said, depending on your backtesting of 3000 sample size plus over course of ten years, you can get a pretty good idea if the time of the day has any merit for a higher probability trades during morning sessions, lunch or afternoon session. In the ES, the morning session offers the best session of good sized moves, and your trading method should be able to get you more of sustained drives to your targets, Whereas during lunch, less so of continuation of harder trends and much more of congestion. So what the difference between the two, morning sessions a method can do well in doing "breakout" trades, buying high and selling higher, but in congestion, one better off buying low and selling at resistance, but many traders have problems of catching the falling rock. If you study enough of 3 or 5 minute bars, finding congestion becomes easier to find by finding the pivots. Whether a pivot high or low are making higher highs or lower lows defines for me if a trend is in place, but if there is no real movement, there is congestion and breakout trades would produce losses for me. Check any pivot low and compare to last pivot low, if distance is large, a good sized trend has occurred, however when the difference between the two becomes narrow, support is forming and one can look for climatic low patterns, often times, this will be the start of congestion patterns. Congestion patterns form and depending on the volatility, this congestion normally are a few points in ES, unlike today where volatility is greater and offering ten points during congestion, buying the double bottom based on my backtesting provides a high probability trade for a few points while reducing risk cause it is not a breakout trade, price either holds at support of flys right on through while risking a few tics. Using an 9 EMA or 20 EMA can also help spot congestion, if EMA is flat or moving through the center of the price bars also can identify congestion. Both offer good profits, but spending your time studying than trading can offer better probabilty of success when one is a younger trader. Too many get into trading and start too early and have no clue what the charts are saying.
============== Agree, generally speaking ; but not all data is real, price or volume. Thanks . Focus on a few; may give a clue. Also some markets have a worse rep than others; illiquid options, illiquid stocks,Chicago contract on pork