I have been in the DFW metroplex area for a week or so and this place is still almost Boom City still. The weather of course is like a fucking blast furnace. But business is huming. The bad stuff is where you fid it. No lecture needed on how "we just don't get it."
Any finanacial seer here ever eaten Poke Salad? Because there was no meat in the barn or no vegetables in the field?
Reminds me of <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/BA8drfZwnXQ&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/BA8drfZwnXQ&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
If the government started sending 100K checks to homeowners because they weren't paying their mortgage, NOBODY would pay their mortgage. YOu'd have to bail out 100% of residential mortgages. Car loans and credit cards would be next.
There are many contributors to our economic mess, including (partial list)... 1. Government deficit spending 2. Government encouraging (even MANDATING) "irresponsible use of credit" for political gain. 3. Consumers' irresponsible use of credit.... encouraged by government direction 4. Abuse of the financial system by institutions... reckless bets on derivatives, usurious interest rates on credit cards 5. Lack of proper supervision of the financial system 6. Theft of Social Security Trust assets by Congress. 7. Bringing competition into the market place from low-labor cost countries... More, of course... A money-pump rally to bolster consumer and investor sentiment aint' gonna fix it.
Oh come on. How stupid do you think ETers are? New home sales could be up 11% over depressed levels... but inventory at 11 year lows?
Concur, but think: A) Because of active intervention, these rebound cycles will continue and drag things out longer than all of us collectively expect. B) 'Intelligent' Investor class is not necessarily intelligent - its the lucky survivors who weather the storm and avoid the asset busts that are to follow. A number of people here have said it - too much money out there following old patterns. More asset and credit destruction to follow, combined with increased taxation, will decrease the overall pool of liquid money (private) available for private and public investment. People still think that real estate is gonna rise exceeding inflation after we work through this overhang. That's fine if its your opinion, but the downside is another leveraged bet that isn't so leveraged (20% down, anyone?) Didn't anyone learn after the last drawdown? A 5 year b.e. is fine, but are you sure you will even get to that point if we don't double dip within that timeframe?