Either housing is (1) in a shallow correction and perhaps near its bottom now (all the RE industry and Gummint are hoping for this), or (2) in the early stages of a significant decline. More houses are coming on the market, but sellers are holding out for the high prices they hope they can get... all while buyers are resisting paying those prices. If housing is in scenario #2, there won't be a bottom until sellers get scared and decide "they'd better get what they can before prices drop further", and cut prices "enough" to make sure their properties move.... the market is a lonnnng way from the bottom of this scenario.
An 800k mortgage (assuming an unlikely zero down payment) at 6% is exactly 4k a month in debt service. Out of pocket it's under 3k a month. Given what rents and earnings are in NY/NJ it's not a significant outlay. Absent a dramatic rise in either unemployment or rates I'd say homes are cheap.
A typical flipper: ...The fun time has ended for Leonard and Joyce Sondheimer. In October 2005, the Bradenton couple bought a $338,900 MiraBay townhome on Aberdeen Pond Drive. The bayside investment home with stone counters, hardwood floors and stainless steel appliances was sure to appreciate to half a million dollars. Or so the Sondheimers thought. After a year on the market, no one has nibbled. Their Realtor chopped the price to break even. The tax bill alone on that single investment - $8,900 a year - is draining the Sondheimers' nest egg. "I was retired and now I've had to go back to work. I've got to pay all these bills," Leonard Sondheimer, 68, said of his new job as a mattress salesman. "It's getting sickening." A mattress salesman? Are you kidding me? http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/sptimes...up+Series:+TIMES+SPECIAL+REPORT+|+HOME+PRICES And then they are these rocket scientists: ...Look what happened to the investment dreams of Jodi and Jeffrey Roberts. The real estate climate was so balmy the past few years, the Robertses' investment homes showered them with hundreds of thousands of dollars in easy gains. Now they are bracing for a different forecast: stormy with a chance of foreclosure. Four Pasco and Hillsborough county properties they bought at the tail end of the property boom can't find buyers willing to offer more than the Robertses paid for them. Price cuts aren't doing the trick. In west Pasco's Gulf Harbors, the couple listed a home for $50,000 less than what they paid. The result? Zero buyer interest. "I know how it feels to be poor," Jodi Roberts said as she contemplated her combined $15,000 monthly house payments. And these people actually work for M/I Homes, and still they couldn't see the forest for the trees.
pigs get fat...hogs get slaughtered. never try to buy at the bottom or sell at the top. I doubt that any housing market is even close to a bottom....The Homebuilder CEOS say they dont see a bottom in sight, so i will listen to them. I hapily sold all my real estate 2 years ago.
its human nature there is a certain amount of satisfaction in seeing other people get burned. i don;t know why that is. must be an animal/survival thing...you see it alot on these posts... there is a german word for it....anyone know what it is? shnauden something or other... there is no english word for it...
sidenote;for those of you unfamiliar with bergen county..nj... is the 2nd to 3rd wealthiest county in the nation ,depending what year the poll is taken & very affluent. khovanian,which is new jersey`s largest home biulder warned last week that cancellations of orders continued to increase in the current quarter due to the inability of buyers to sell their existing homes.............hovanian is also cancelling permits to build in many areas. last month,Kara Homes of east brunswick filed for bankruptcy,another big builder here in north jersey.