The above is a long winded way of saying looks like I'm not the only bright bulb who saw the bottom clearly so if you doubters wish you can align yourself to the RJ research. Also that one common stock they recommended - Cogent - deserves special attention today. ~ stoney
More on COGT from RJ- It is worth considering that if Congress approves the recently proposed defense spending plan, which calls for tens of billions of increased spending, it should spread massive amounts of dollars to small/medium businesses whose multiplier effect could go a long way in avoiding a recession. This is another reason I have been unwaveringly bullish on U.S. government IT, defense, and the Homeland Security complex for the past number of years. Most recently, I have turned constructive on the shares of Strong Buy-rated Cogent (COGT). With more than 500,000 aliens entering the U.S. every year the authorities need a 99.9% accurate fingerprint reading in less than 30 seconds, which is one of the products Cogent manufactures. The companyâs $5.00 per share in cash implies that we are buying the rest of the company for $4.19 a share. If my analyst is correct, Cogent should earn $0.55 per share in 2009, meaning we are buying the shares at less than 10 times forward earnings (ex-cash per share). Since 2008 is a great product pipeline year, as well as a potentially favorable contract âwinâ year, I think the risk/reward ratio is right for investors. To be sure, I continue to like the Government IT and Homeland Security themes. Still, the government service stocks have tumbled around 8% in January due to the broad market decline and in-line with the seasonal trading patterns seen in the group. Due to the sell-off, my sense is the group looks more attractive than it has in quite some time. Moreover, I think investors are beginning to look for investments that are acyclic to the broader market concerns surrounding the consumer, energy prices, subprime exposure, and housing problems. Given the current valuation, fundamentals, and lack of a fundamental correlation to the overall market, I believe the government services group can outperform the broader markets in 2008. In addition to Cogent, I see value in Stanley (SXE) and NCI (NCIT). ~ si
FEB 19 WINGED MESSENGER RETURNS HOME!!! STOCK MARKET GAINS GUARANTEED!!! on Monday, January 28th, 2008, Mercury the cosmic trickster, turns retrograde in Aquarius, the sign of the Water-Bearer, sending communications, travel, appointments, mail and the www into a general snarlup! This awkward period begins a few days before the actual turning point (as Mercury slows) and lasts for three weeks or so, until February 19, when the Winged Messenger reaches his direct station. At this time he halts and begins his return to direct motion through the zodiac. and the markets march up! Everything finally straightens out on March 10, as he passes the point where he first turned retrograde.... Phew! ~ stoney
rethinking this a bit... The McDonald Report Commentary & Perspective... Is Emcore Moving Too Fast on CPV Spin Out Plans? Jo Ann McDonald, founding editor February 12, 2008...The USA economy is in sad shape, chaos rules in Washington DC as politicos embark on an explosive presidential and congressional election year, the renewable energy bandwagon is only starting its uphill roll (and hasn't as yet been fully decorated nor properly fueled), people are only just now starting to get wind of what the field of concentrator photovoltaics (CPV) is all about, yet one of the mainstay compound semi chip and system companies, Emcore Corporation of Albuquerque, New Mexico, is talking seriously about spinning out its CPV division into a stand-alone publicly held company via an independent public offering (IPO). Don't get me wrong. I love Emcore. Always have, always will. There's simply something about their CEOs, past (Norm Schumaker) and present (Reuben Richards) that evoke basic loyalty and confidence, especially if the loyalist is uniquely close to the company. Ask anyone from Aixtron and they'll likely tell you that I've spent way too many words of praise on Emcore over the years. Indeed, I spent a three year "sabbatical" from journalism to consult to Emcore as its director of corporate communications during the era (1998-2000) when it gradually moved from its pioneer status in Somerset, New Jersey as one of our industry's major suppliers of MOCVD equipment (competing head-to-head with Aixtron) to also become a leading materials and device foundry. That was also the timeframe when Emcore built the Albuquerque facility and solar division and started making its way up the supply chain into the satellite solar and fiber optics device provider it is today. A journalist who gets to go inside a key company for a lengthy consulting gig at the level at which I dwelled inside Emcore can attest to the fact that you get to know more about that company, and the overall industry, better you ever could as a journalist covering the industry. Most importantly, when you've been party to ghostwriting many of their words, when you step outside again, you know how to read between the lines. When I put my model CS stock portfolio together three years ago, after having established CompoundSemi Online, Emcore (Nasdaq: EMKR) was the first one in the portfolio, which now includes a mere 100 shares each of: Aixtron (AIXG), Anadigics (ANAD), AXT (AXTI), Cree (CREE), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Kopin (KOPN), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), Spire (SPIR) and TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT). The ying-yang they all routinely and collectively go through makes for interesting column fodder, which is the only reason I set it up. As it turns out, right now Spire and Emcore are the only two yielding +$1,000 gains since the original investments. Both include CPV in their product offerings. I bought the original Emcore shares in April of '05 at a mere $3.08/share, and it's trading today at $14.50/share. I bought Spire shares at $4.45 in May of '05, and it's trading today at $17.93. Go CPV technology! But that doesn't mean it's a smart time for Emcore to spin off its CPV division via a stand-alone IPO. I think the USA economy is so shaky, the country in such political upheaval as the Iraq oil war rages on (...and on, and on) and with CPV still in its technological infancy, that going for an IPO might not be the best thing for Emcore shareholders, who will vote on the matter at their upcoming annual meeting in March. Listening to Emcore's recent earnings conference call, it all sounds rosy and promising. And it is. Reading all the tiny print that the SEC mandates they send out to shareholders, there's more to the story. And any semiconductor industry veteran knows that progress in a relatively new sector is always slower than anticipated. Ask anyone in the world of silicon and they'll they'll remind you that niche markets are especially fickle. And anyone playing in the renewal energy sector is subject to fickleness, given the gigantic clout the oil industry has over upstart challengers. Listening to the Emcore recent conference call, (which is accessible online until Feb. 14th) there was considerable emphasis on the pending CPV deal via a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Emcore and SunPeak Solar LLC of Palm Desert, California. The caveat is that SunPeak Solar is depending heavily on two things: acquiring and maintaining huge hunks of cheap land in Southern California near the Arizona border and in the Sultan Sea, and the whims of the US Congress. Doing a bit of online sleuthing, one notes that the only online information available on SunPeak Solar appears to be in connection to the Emcore MOU (Ref: Jan 31, 2008 company news release). Otherwise, no news or information is available about SunPeak Solar. The company has only a bare-bones website and when googling its principals by name, despite the claim that they have "over 90 years combined experience in the development and operation of energy projects in North America and Europe" you get virtually zip on those principals. Plus, when googling the company that evidently preceded SunPeak Solar, UPC International (you have to add "renewal energy" or you get nothing that relates), it was evidently involved in the acquisition of very large land tracks for wind farms with a bit of controversy. According to Emcore, SunPeak Solar is depending heavily on the US Congress to grant companies like SunPeak renewable energy investment tax credits (ITCs) via the so-called "economic recovery package" currently before Congress. Anyone who objectively tracks the US Congress these days knows that not much legislation actually gets passed, no matter how many "campaign promises" are spouted due to two-party gridlock. Plus, it doesn't take much to realize that most of the pending economic incentive talk is largely election year eyewash. Then there's the pesky holdover fact that Emcore hasn't yet regained its former profitability status from back when it was a CS materials and equipment company. When it went public in the mid-1990s, Reuben Richards and chairman of the board Tom Russell took over the helm from Norm Schumaker. The IPO share price was $10. It reached a whopping $150 at its peak, before the telecom collapse, and now, almost 10 years later, it's just re-approaching $15/share. Plus, Emcore remains in the final throws of settling its stock option difficulties and fully integrating the new management team that results from the headquarters move to Albuquerque and resignation of various members of senior management. Emcore's top leaders, President and COO Hong Hou and CEO Reuben Richards, however, have been with Emcore for quite a long time now and are obviously extremely knowledgeable about CPV technology and the nascent CPV marketplace. Solar division VPs David Danzillo and Ed Fuller who are likely to be tagged to run the spin off, are doing excellent work and are extremely well-credentialed. So, I have high hopes for the idea in the longrun. If anyone can make it work, they likely can. But personally, I think spinning out the solar division with an IPO when the dust hasn't completely settled from so much change is premature. Shareholders may elect to wait until things settle down a bit more and the path looks a little more defined. We'll see what happens in March. back with more later...
ONLY STOCKS I'M THINKING ABOUT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASIDE FROM PANL WHICH WAS JUST BOUGHT ARE AKAMI & ACH..... As portfolio stuffers if you believe in this move these two seemed primed to beat the market from here... Debating. ~ stoney
JASO now +$3.25 , CSIQ +2.70 ,SOLF +1.65, ASTI +2.10, ENER +2.35! What a day for the junior solars! 15:27:38 Comment EMKR surging late! Breaks out to new afternoon highs & pressing the early session highs!!!!!!!!!! 15:24:02 Comment DJI & SPX break out to nominal new session highs, good call stoneyboy.... I'm practically in a full orgasm right now. Some of these new free streaming sites are an eyeful... when the wife is out, ironically - getting a facial. I own most every solar stock except the really good expensive ones up $22! ENER is my baby though.... CSIQ what can I say brought to you all at what $7???? Now EMKR- will the spin off work? I say YES. Management structures it so if you buy the common before such and such a date then you get a share or two... let the stampede begin... A guy can dream anyway. Oh baby the market is back or it's fun for a day or two anyway... EMKOR YOU NEED TO STEP UP NOW FOR STONEY I've put a lot of chips on YOU >GIDDIAP!!
Who buys a printer and tries to install it on Valentine's day in the 6:00 am hour? My darling wife. This is after we threw my moms out that she gave us so nicely because it printed blanks and then ordered one on the net spent two harrowing days trying to force feed it into my overheating laptop only to find out it wasn't meant for a Mac... then to go and buy an Epsion when I specifically said buy something ultra simple that does not print pictures!! All these damn new printers need their drive installed and that's where things get real ugly if you are as jinxed with technology as I am... If it's big and expensive and works easily for everyone else.... well it's a nightmare to me and so we start this pleasant Valentines Day in a huge fight. Let's make some money. Lots of good earnings today to play off of. Yest XFML reported bad numbers but they weren't as bad as Briefing had them in an incorrect post... maybe a bounce there, I prefer JRJR. Taser in line beats on rev... Comcast Beats by 3cents beats on rev initiates a div ALXN Beats by 16 cents! Beats on rev what a monster, FARO (this is the one to look at today my gut says) Beats by 16 cents!! Beats on rev... maintains 08 guidance... VSCI which we spoke about twice in this thread is really looking like the real deal, the damn thing is already up over 100% for the year!!! Is this going to be one of those 10,000% medical stocks gainers that you receive junk mail about from stock pushers? $3.72 open $4.34 all time high close. Amazingly for such a cheap stock earnings of 55cents and a PE of 8. Thank you stonedinvestor! Japan up 4% overnight biggest move in many a moon Watch Steel and Aluminum plays Sirf or die! We started with this idea and what are we going to do about it.... Ditto LXU, then we can put this thread to bed. ~ stoney
Busy day today missed everything looks like a typical low volume pullback that should of happened on a friday... we take it all back tomorrow... then again options expiration and a those have been neg about 67% of the time... add to that something crazy about stock that has to be sold tomorrow that they kept teasing on bloomberg until I fell into millionaire matchmaker. A couple of solar upgrades today JASO Think Equity T $35 Co is a leader in low cost production poised to expand. STP (I'm inclined to give this one a shot) T- $65 from somebody stk is $50... Tomorrow it's Sirf most likely.... Meli interesting.... GMKT..... YGE earnings tomorrow up again today oh I'm feeling $6 up here tomorrow PLEASE! MDCO held up great PTEC dito ARTE dito CRY dito ACH up $2 Boyzzzzzzzzz Just whish I had bought it. sh*t! CHDX now that I've sold it's still going up of course up another $1.73 just call that stock Mr Out Perform! VSCI Finally had the pull in we have been waiting for just to where I wanted to buy wish I had been home, lets watch that in the morning... it's AMSC had an interesting day $23.59 high and a $21.33 close... might be a perfect add day if the market turns back up... KALU & NUE & ATI strong.... ~ stoney