Hey Stoney, We are no longer in a bull market. Many stocks and indexes have broken multi-year trends. They are reaching new lows each and everyday. The ones that are reaching new highs seem to have exhausted chart patterns. As for Cree, we are shorting it for a reason. Cree cant get above its former highs and will probably experience a shart pullback soon enough. Probably to new 52 week lows. I have never heard you once say to short. Not everyone is down this year. Those who shorted are way up. There is still a lot of down room to go though. Remember 2001? Remember 2002? The downtrend continued for 2-3 years for most stocks, most indexes. Right now it appears we are in a downtrend that is only months old. I say that this time is no different and the downtrend will last for at least 2 years with a few dramatic short covering pops. None of these stocks will be able to hold over a moving average and the shorts will finally prevail.
Stoney, ILMN will be 100. with the kind of earnings and blowout guidence they just offered,its a stock to own. its also a company NOT affected by an economic slowdown(i believe). CREE is on fire even after posting not so great results,more specifically margins. any yet it is being accumulated heavily. something going on at CREE. there has been buyout spec hovering over CREE for the past 6 months but obviously something is up especially when there are so many asian companies that are doing the same thing CREE is and affecting margins/ gotta like CREE. SYNA is another one that i like here but would like to see it pull bacl again first. tyhe gambler in me wants to buy SIGM and hold ionto earning or sell the day of. it could rebound from here to the 48 area. 2 others to keep your eye on for bounces, GPRO and ZOLT.
JR you are correct I rarely use the word short because I rarely short, I can't remember the last time I did. ELON, I think. I have dabbled with these 2X inverts like DUG but an outright short on a company is not my style. I just see the market in one way and turning it upside down to pick the weaklings out is best left to others. In times of flatline recoveries which we are probably nearing once we get this recovery blast off out of the way, a long/short approach will beat the market for sure. I know of a good hedge fund for that but once I buy this weekend house this month I won't make the minimum. I do appreciate shortsellers though and their research one in particular The Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight has caught my eye on numerous occasions. I think eventually I may turn and become a monster in this area but I'm always looking for breakouts not breakdowns. I prefer a market where everyone is happy to some degree, I would only short something ridiculously high like Sears Hldgs at $140 (which I just remember I did in one account) but I would never kick a stock or their investors when they are already down. This attitude of Shwab and Barron's, if the market goes up you make money, if the market goes down, you make money- drives me through the freakin' wall. Aside from my own fully invested shrinking account, I have a mil plus untouchable until 2019 that I have been forced to watch throughout the years, through 87' through 90's tech crash, internet blow up ...yes I had Enron and I'm the schmuck who lobbied to get in in there. (Luckily I have broken down the bank and forced in a lot of trades over the years and that keep me interested )... throughout the five years of DOW 10,000 nothing. Finally a blip up to 14,000 and it's taken away by the criminals in high finance, just like each time before. hummmm is there a trend here? Yes JR the world is a farce and Pakastan will have a coup someday & attack somebody and Iran will get hit by the Jewish folk and on and on, our account deff will swell, credit cards debt is out of control and the market will dwindle down to zero and in 2019I will receive 17 and a half cents. Sometimes I wish I was more aggressive and did short more but also the type of stocks I am closest too come with a high fee as described in the Cree analysis above... really I am starting to see in this last leg down some charts that have put a line in the sand... CREE is one of the strongest patterns right now for whatever reason- primarily I suspect this down time by the competitor... the whiplash can be fierce with Cree and sometimes interday... to short it is to hope you can get back out at $29 which it likes to visit in market pukes but it's also to go to bed nervous every Friday in my view as the potential reward would be north of $45. How about GRMN anybody like this for next week take a look at that chart, this is an example of a pattern i am highlighting stocks that last Fiday were at a certain price and this Friday were at the same price despite a 4% fall for stocks... they tend to be tech which is telling us something folks... we are about to rally. Once again Warrior you touch on one of my favorite all time stocks SIGM, timing entry on this one is like jumping aboard a moving NASCAR. For what it's worth whispers of competition has held me off lately but if you do a search on the name here you will see I have had my fun with this stock before. Another powerful chart, we can begin collecting them folks: EMKR, LXU, CCC, SIGM,CREE - they are few and far between!~stoney
Stoney, I can see your point about always wanting to be positive and see things go up, however, we have to face reality. The reality is that we are in a bear market. You trade with the trend. If the trend is down, then thats the way you trade. A positive is when your account balance goes up. A negative is when it goes down. It doesnt matter what the position, thats how I define positive and negative. In your attempts to be positive, the result was a negative.
NYH I won't- you don't forget about LXU (LSB) one of their divisions is big into the poop! Lets delve a little deeper into ARTES- * Breakthrough, long-lasting injectable dermal filler * Excellent safety and efficacy reported in just completed 5-year clinical trial * Potential to dominate injectable dermal filler market within 3 years Artes Medicalâs initial product is ArteFill, a ânon-resorbableâ (not absorbed into the body), injectable implant for the correction of facial wrinkles and other aesthetic uses. ArteFill consists of a proprietary combination of microspheres made of Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), widely used in implantable medical devices, and highly purified bovine collagen. Artes Medicalâs product is unique in terms of duration of effect. ArteFill treatments yield a near-permanent result, as has been demonstrated by a 5-year clinical trial, recently concluded. In contrast, competitive offerings, including the industry-leading Restylane (Medicis), last as little as 6 months and thus require continual treatments. This, in turn, results in demonstrated fall-off from: 1) injection fatigue, where patients become tired of repeated injection treatments, and 2) credit card fatigue, where patients become tired of repeated payments resulting from repeated treatments. According to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS), 10.2 million cosmetic/aesthetic procedures were performed in the United States in 2005. Minimally-invasive procedures, such as injectable aesthetic product treatments, i.e., collagen and Botox injections, accounted for the bulk of those procedures. The ASPS estimates sales of injectable products of more than $2.2 billion dollars in the United States in 2005. Cowen & Co. estimates that sales of products by manufacturers within this market approached $600 million in 2006. Further, Cowen & Co. estimates that expenditures on procedures using temporary dermal fillers could reach $800 million worldwide in 2007, and run as high as $1.5 billion in the United States over the next five to 10 years. This translates into a compound annual growth rate of between a 20-25% through 2011). 5-Year, Peer-Reviewed Clinical Study The companyâs 5-year clinical study â the results of which were released Feb. 1, 2007 â should help drive interest for ArteFill and allay concerns among physicians. For the study, 119 patients who received ArteFill treatment were evaluated after approximately 5.4 years. The results showed continued wrinkle correction at six months, 1 year and after 5 years, and the results were proven as statistically significant. The study also showed that patients continued to improve throughout the study as compared to the initial and 6-month evaluation period. This is because the bodyâs natural collagen coalesces around the micro PMMA beads in ArteFill. The incidence of adverse events associated with ArteFill was in line with that seen with other dermal fillers. Participants in the study were asked to provide their own assessment; over 90% indicated that they were either "very satisfied" or "satisfied." Over 90% of the physician assessments indicated that the procedures were either "completely successful" or "very successful." Whatâs more, at the end of the trials, 106 of 116 patients in the control group chose to receive a complementary ArteFill treatment. There are two categories of competition facing ArteFill - those that are made with bovine collagen and another group made from Hyaluronic acid. In recent history, the dermal filler market has moved away from animal-based collagen, primarily because of concerns over the remote possibility of contracting bovine spongiform encephalopathy, commonly known as âmad cow disease.â As a result, hyaluronic acid (a component of connective tissue whose function is to cushion and lubricate) derived products such as Restylane (Medicis) are now the dominant products in the dermal filler market. However, Restylane is shown to last no more than 6 months before requiring additional treatment. A new product, Juvederm (Allergan), also made with hyaluronic acid, promises longer-lasting effects with a duration slightly over 6 months. ArteFill is a move back toward animal-based collagen. In order to address concerns related to mad cow disease, Artes Medical harvests its collagen from a closed U.S. herd and employs a proprietary process that yields a highly purified collagen that is partially denatured, making it less allergenic. In the general population, 3% of patients have tested positive for allergies to bovine-based collagen products. However, none of the 391 patients in the ArteFill clinical trials has tested positive for allergic reactions to the purified collagen used in ArteFill. The other advantage of ArteFill is that the bovine collagen dissipates over time and is replaced with the bodyâs naturally occurring collagen, which bonds to the PMMA microspheres, a process that takes only two to four weeks. The microspheres in ArteFill remain intact at the injection site and provide a structure to support the skin and help prevent further wrinkling. As is the case with most elective medical treatments, safety is of the utmost concern to most patients. According to the clinical data, adverse events associated with ArteFill were mild to moderate and were fewer than in the collagen control group. In addition, there is a 10-plus year history of use in Europe of predecessor products created by ArteFillâs original inventor (who is not affiliated with Artes Medical). Those products, Arteplast and Artecoll, showed incidence of granulomas, which are sub-dermal irritations resulting in redness or the formation of bumps or the hardening of tissue at the injection site. These issues were largely resolved by improvements in the purification and washing technique used on the PMMA microspheres. The improved process results in rounder, smoother beads of a more uniform size, as well as fewer nanoparticles, which are thought to be the irritants that caused the inflammatory reactions. There was no incidence of granulomas in the ArteFill 5-year clinical study. After receiving FDA approval of ArteFill on October 27, 2006, for the treatment of nasolabial folds (smile lines), Artes Medical is launching ArteFill in the U.S. market, targeting approximately 600 doctors, high-volume practitioners concentrated in California, Florida, and New York. The total dermal filler market is comprised of approximately 23,000 cosmetic and plastic surgeons and dermatologists, with the top 1,000 of these doctors performing an estimated 50% of all dermal filler procedures. There appears to be a clear opportunity to acquire patients from current dermal filler populations as well as patients that have discontinued due to injection fatigue or credit card fatigue. There also appears to be the potential for âoff labelâ usage â where doctors use ArteFill for treatments other than it was specifically approved for by the FDA, such as the treatment of acne scars and other types of traumatic scars or facial defects. Doctors are likely to present various case studies on alternative uses for ArteFill, which may offer the necessary data and experience to drive off-label usage of ArteFill. Artes Medical started shipping ArteFill only in February of 2007. The preliminary indicators were promising. Cowen & Co.âs check with physicians suggests pent up demand for ArteFill by patients and also a clear willingness by physicians to sign up for the required training. Sales estimates for Artes Medical, Inc. range from $69 million to $78 million by 2009, with initial 2007 sales of between $13.8 million and $16.7 million. These are figures are based on research conducted by Stifel Nicolaus and Cowen & Co., respectively. Though the company is not profitable at the current time, itâs estimated that Artes Medical will either be at profitability or near-profitability by 2009. Thus, analysts at both Stifel Nicolaus and Cowen & Co. believe Artes Medical will be a ripe take-over target. The company came public by way of its Dec 20, 2006, IPO, issuing 4.6 million shares at a price of $6.00 per share, for a total of $26.6 million prior to fees. Why oh why is it $3 now?? Some patients may remain leery of the permanent effects of the ArteFill product, while others will find its long-lasting effects compelling. In addition, ArteFillâs use of bovine collagen is at odds with industry trends because of fear of mad cow disease, as previously noted. The productâs safety as suggested by the 5-year study should alleviate many of these concerns. What's a little Mad Cow folks! when those lines and wrinkles go away.... ~ si
Getting into the Captain's chair centering on EMKR this am and also following VNUS medical a nice ugly vein play....~ stoney NDX surges across KEY short term double top resiistance at 1779-80! What did I tell you folks? Big week. Big week Big week. That's the mantra, keep saying it until it happens.... what was that song " can you feel it? " Got to dig that record out, big beat club song....
Oh my it's the club version of a Michael Jackson song and it's ELEVATING, just what we and the market needs. Trade with this song on FULL VOLUME FOLKS! Can you feel it, Can you feel it, Can you feel it If you look around The whole world is coming together now, baby Can you feel it, Can you feel it, Can you feel it Feel it in the air, The wind is taking it everywhere, yeah Can you feel it, Can you feel it, Can you feel it All the colors of the world should be Lovin' each other wholeheartedly Yes, it's all right Take my message to your brother And tell him twice Spread the word and try to teach the man Who's hating his brother, When hate won't do, ooh 'Cause we're all the same, yes The blood inside of me is inside of you Now, tell me Can you feel it, Tell me Can you feel it, Can you feel it, oh When you see it´s going down Can you see it in your bones? Can´t you feel it, yeah Yeah, yeah, oh Every breath you take Is someone's death in another place (Another place) Every healthy smile Is hunger and strife to another child (Another child) But the stars do shine In promising salvation, is near this time (Near this time) Can you feel it now So brothers and sisters show me know how Now, tell me Can you feel it, Tell me can you feel it, Can you feel it hey hey Talk to your self now This feeling is going down Open up your mind Can you feel it, Can you feel it All the children in the world should be Loving each other wholeheartedly Yes, it's all right Take my message to your brother And tell him twice Take the news to the marching men Who are killing their brothers When death won't do, ooh Yes we're all the same Yes, the blood inside of my vain is inside of you Now, tell me Can you feel it, Can you feel it, Can you feel it Can you Can you (Can you feel it) (Can you feel it) (Can you feel it) Can you feel this damn market going up????
Interesting, two of our ideas for the week NOK & SYNA, could they be making news together? Nokia to launch touch-screen phone in late 2008 February 11, 2008: 08:14 AM EST BARCELONA, Feb. 11, 2008 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) -- Finnish manufacturer Nokia (NYSE:NOK) OYJ, the world's biggest maker of mobile phones, has said it will release a touch-screen handset for the first time in the second half of this year. Nokia has been late in introducing the technology. Apple has scored a hit with its touch-screen iPhone and Nokia's traditional rivals LG, Samsung, Sony (NYSE:SNE) Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERICY) , a joint venture of Sony and Ericsson, and HTC have already used the technology. Nokia chief executive Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo told a press conference the touch-screen phone would appear in the second half of 2008. He said Nokia, which had 40 pct of the world market at the end of 2007, would launch its music download service 'Nokia Music Store' in 10 more countries in the next six months. It is currently available only in the UK.~ si
This briefing mention caught my eye... Vision-Sciences receives FDA clearance to market video-based cystoscopy line for use with its new generation EndoSheath Tech Co announces that it has received 510(k) clearance from the FDA to market its new advanced digital, video-based flexible Cystoscope, which is used in conjunction with an integrated "built-in" light source, eliminating the need for a separate camera head, light guide cable and optical coupler. And wouldn't you know the chart is out of sight! $3.72 presently and a breaking clear to all time highs. Lets keep VSCI on our list of good charts in a bad market! ~ stoney