Black Friday sale should be good, it's the last time consumers will find deals, they will go out in forces... and they bought a lot of noodles and soups making me wonder" Is this the hurricane season?"
Must be long over the weekend because the first question is absurd to ask. Are BF sales not an indicator of consumer spending? Does consumer spending somehow not affect earnings? Guess earnings no longer impact the equity market and (THE FAMOUS BULL PHRASE) are always priced into the market.
let me see: BF sales are down (was expected) >>> market goes down BF sales are up (real life) >>> market goes down Looks like the market was determined to go down no matter what the BF sales were....
I don't take the 3% increase in sales released on Saturday to be an accurate representation of what we will hear when actual stores release their numbers. That is where we are differing in our opinions
The way I see it people still need to buy presents for Christmas, so they went out on the cheapest day of the year to buy those presents. That doesn't mean that this Christmas shopping season won't be a disaster for retailers.
Could very well be bullish in the extremely short term (I somewhat doubt it). However, I think in terms of the overall thesis of the market it's just another extremely bearish indication that American's are clueless when it comes to money. Also just a question as I briefly scanned the article, but doesn't a 3% increase in dollar denominated sales year-over-year roughly correlate with inflation. With that in mind are we basically looking at flat year-over-year numbers at an awful margin for retailers? If in fact my thesis is true (and I'd be interested to hear more educated opinions) it seems like a bearish indication to me. People are losing jobs with more job cuts expected, yet they spend money on discretionary goods. Sounds like a good idea to me... "I'm struggling a bit to make my mortgage payments, could possibly lose my job, but I HAVE to get this plasma screen because the deals will never be this good." You don't need to spend money to save money. I'd like to see the percentage of purchases made on credit. (End Rant)
I went to Franklin Mills Outlet mall in Philly Saturday evening. Plenty of parking and few people shopping. Times that I've been there in the past that were not holiday times were always busier than what I saw on Saturday. I saw special advertised sale items with signs saying "limit 1 per customer" just sitting on the shelves. I agree with the bleak retail outlook. Should be real bargains in January 2009.
I was stunned by how bad the Black Friday deals were this year. It seems like this year's BF was a marketing ploy to mark up merchandise 200% and then drop the price 25-30%. It was the worst BF in recent memory in terms of shopping. I'm really surprised people bought as much as they did. Nothing that floated my boat and plenty of other people as well.