Stong Black Friday sale

Discussion in 'Trading' started by silenttrader, Nov 30, 2008.

  1. no doubt that it will. markets will probably surge another 5% MONDAY AND THEN when GM is bailed out it will add another 10%. The dow should end the year at 11,000. Then a steady 3000 point rally in 2009 to 14,000.
  2. as the article states, 'Deep discounts on everything from sweaters to TVs drove
    shoppers out of hibernation . . . The sales receipts, however, came at the expense
    of profits, and merchants are facing a big challenge exciting financially strapped
    shoppers for the rest of the season that's expected to be the weakest in decades.
    . . . People were buying but they bought cheap, and the results were not as good."
    This year, in a desperate bid to pull in shoppers, stores were even more aggressive
    offering discounts of up to 70 percent in the days leading to the weekend, and widening
    those price cuts for a broader array of merchandise for the early morning deals.'

    it's expected 6,000+ retailers will be out of business by the end of the year and a
    further 14,000+ in 09 and with mall vacancy rates rising from the high teens to 20s
    given that retailers from high to low have been told 'cod or no delivery of goods' it's
    not surprising there has been an increase in sales thanks to very large discounts
    however retailers have to do the same for xmas and any new year sales and
    considering there are retailers that expect to make 40% of the annual profits at
    this time of year, the perspective is that yoy results will be down

    the new year begins that period of lowest consumer spending including house and
    auto sales, a period that continues until late spring
    09 will be a devastating year for retailers as well as the knock-on for manufacturers
    and distributors and additional unemployment

    friday will see the release of the nov non farm figures estimated to be at least 300K
    and look for revisions to the oct figures, if the market doesn't begin to drop on fri look
    for it to do so next week
  3. bad numbers already priced in. the numbers would have to be just horrible for the market to fall.
  4. Barron's Online also bearish.

    A PUNK ECONOMY DIDN'T STOP CONSUMERS FROM LINING UP on Black Friday to make holiday purchases at bargain prices. But even that shopping spree isn't expected to salvage the month's results. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores (ticker: WMT), retailers are expected to report Thursday that November sales at stores open more than a year fell 7.1%, according to Thomson Reuters.

    In addition, the sales Friday and this weekend might not translate into decent profits because merchants slashed prices. When you can find Jimmy Choos for 40% off at Saks Fifth Avenue, you know that retailers are hurting.
  5. stock_trad3r,
    you know absolutely nothing about the markets. you buy and hold,then get slaughtered but come to this board with the hoped of being reassured by some other idiots who also don't have a clue about the markets. not only that,you also cannot trade. its pathetic,why come to this board,clearly the markets are not a place for you. do you have a gambling problem? seriously,stay away from the markets,its not a place for you to be.
  6. Cramer said to sell when the dow was at 8500 back in early October. Therefore, longs can't fail.
  7. I was in Walmart today picking up some washer fluid due to the orrible weather in the Northeast today. Anyway there were no crowds. People had just a few food items and winter clothing in there trolleys.

    I was amazed to see stacks of LCD TV's and electronics at bargain prices. No one was looking at them. Checked out BestBuy - same story there also.

    My anecdotal view is that the Black Friday sales event is over. 2008 Xmas sales are going to be extremely bleak.
  8. Black Friday sales were so good that the YM is 100 points off fair value.

    What do you bulls think about that?
  9. Pekelo


    1. Black Friday sales have no effect on the markets, why should they?

    2. The market has been up for 5 days, a little break is way overdue...

    3. Since when overnight futures determine the daily close????
    #10     Nov 30, 2008