Good Morning Stocksters! Today I'm at a conundrum. The market has started to act bad. One way I know this is I look through my notes for the week and I see in the margins angry scrawls pf " missed this " " dummy " and "!'s". In particular the names were GNK & ZNGA. Something in my research turned me off the ideas even though they flashed on my technical screens... this is when you get angry and say why can't I take emotion outof this, Ihave to be a typical robot quant. The great investors know that's not true... always stick with your gut... Stick with the idea that makes sense. Anyway when a market turns back some ugly duck break outs it gets you thinking. EXAS. Is a stock I brought to ET way back when at $5.00. There's a few threads on it. Here is some of the latest news I'm considering going Big Boy all over this idea, I know it's dangerous but this stock is so right. It fits everything that you need to be a serious blockbuster stock. I would sell the back lot with a huge gain and then get right back in on a dip I am convinced that this name will see $15-$30 this year. from marketwatch- Yesterday, four institutions filed documents with the SEC reminding us of the large institutional ownership that has occurred in the stock of Exact Sciences the past year. Included in the filings were those of Wasatch Advisors who own about 7.1% of outstanding shares and Orbimed Advisors with another 7.18% of outstanding. Making an investment in a small-cap biotech is almost always a gamble, especially when a company does not have a product to market yet. Why then have institutions spent the past year flocking to invest in Exact Sciences before a Phase III trial for their screening test for colorectal cancer is complete? The stool-based DNA test, Cologuard, that Exact hopes to bring to market in 2013 appears to be extremely effective at detecting early stage cancers and even pre-cancers. Preliminary results released and presented by the company show that their new test is significantly more effective than the current Fecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) and Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) which is now administered to over 10 million people per year. The FOBT/FIT have very low rates of colorectal cancer detection, particularly early detection. This has contributed to colon cancers being detected late after symptoms present and very low rates of survival for colon cancer, despite it being a very treatable disease when caught early. It has also helped inflate the costs of treating colon cancer, which exceed $14 billion per year. This is clearly a number that the government and insurance companies would like to see reduced or at least held in check as the baby boom generation ages. The Exact test seems particularly strong at detecting almost all stage 1 and 2 cancers, but also a significant amount of pre-cancers. The development of colon cancer can take up to 10 years before a cancerous polyp develops. Once cancer has developed, it takes about 1 to 3 years before advancing to more dangerous stages. During the pre-cancer and early stages of colorectal cancer, about 90% of people survive who receive treatment. Only about 10% of those diagnosed at later stages survive five years. Today, about 10 million average-risk people take the FOBT/FIT test annually despite it not being terribly effective at finding early cancers. Because the test is widely known as less effective, compliance rates are lower than a screening test should be. There are another 4.5 million people who receive a colonoscopy annually. Exact conservatively is estimating capturing 30% of the market with the opportunity for $1.2 billion in annual revenue. I believe Exact will dominate the current FOBT/FIT market, lead to increased screening compliance and gain a significant portion of the colonoscopies, particularly among younger patients. My end-of-decade revenue estimates from cancer screening exceed $4.5 billion per year when Europe is also considered. Margins will depend on reimbursement rates, however, they should be over 20% even with Medicare covering many of the tests. CMS has already indicated it will pay for the test once approved. Of note is that stool-based DNA testing for colon cancer is already in testing guidelines in both America and Europe. Presuming the test passes the FDA trial, there is little stopping it from rapid adoption if accepted by doctors, which doesn't seem like a large hurdle. Competition appears light for Exact at this point. A blood test that could become available is currently most effective in detecting later-stage cancers. General Electric is introducing a pill that will take pictures of the digestive track from the inside as it passes through. However, it will not be able to detect anything that is not visible, i.e., it won't be able to find pre-cancers, and will require drinking a heavy liquid. Over the past three years as the accomplished management team at Exact has moved through the process of bringing this test to market institutional investors have taken notice. They have been primarily responsible for driving the stock price up on a ride that has been a relatively and strangely smooth one for a small-cap biotech. Among Exact's other virtues is an extremely strong patent portfolio that offers the potential for other genetic tests, including blood-based tests. The patents for Cologuard could be defensible for nearly two decades. Already, a few patents were sold to Genzyme a few years ago in order to generate some cash and strategic positioning. In the future, with revenue from Cologuard, Exact could develop some of the patents themselves with help from their partners. The company has a strong working relationship with Mayo Clinic and John Hopkins, and is in near the University of Wisconsin at Madison, which has a prolific genetic program which could lead to a relationship at some point. ********* yum. ANF has retraced to a buy point so we have to ask ourselves if it's the right move or not. Both of these charts are interesting but difficult to read. With EXAS if you look at a 2 year chart and took away the run up in Sept 2010... then the graph would be very smooth and easy to channel Top of the channel right about $13.... but that's why technicals work so great in biotech... the first impulse is indicative of the frenzy of what's to come so we add in that pop Sept 2010 Drawing the uptrend become impossible and quite parabolic. This stock is going over twenty or my name isn't stonedinvestor! ANF- To me this looks like it's going to $55, It's $48 now is that enough? I think so.... If you got lucky and the economy ripped $65 is doable. Textebook flag so far. Ok the GS conference wraps today so I'm expecting that Goldman upgrade tomorrow.... for RPXC... I think we may hit our target tomorrow. But of course you know what's going to happen... Is it Greed? Or just weed? ~stoney
I need verification that this man, is in fact stoned. If he isn't than I refuse to read this thread. Pics of bud or change your name.
huh.... i am going to turn the chart 180 deg. or stand on my head. it looks better already. ............................. the YMI puke. which raises the question.........YMI long........ sparking up the pipe as it shit cans all the way to zero. cheers, s
Given that Hologic ( which purchased current Exact Science CEO Kevin Conroy's last company, Third Wave )just recently paid $3.7 BILLION for GenProbe, which is nothing more than a legacy blood screening company that screens for stuff like STD's and Hepatitis in blood, I would tend to believe that EXAS will eventually become a take-over target, especially after it presents the data for their FDA clinical trial ( "Deep C" ) in Q4 of this year. Some simple "back of the napkin" calculations on Cologuard replacing the 10 million annual FOBT/FIT tests that are conducted puts the share price of EXAS in triple digits. Recently, Robert Baird analyst Quentin Lai stated that Cologuard is looking at a $4-$5 BILLION dollar marketplace here in the US, alone. Look for the Company to discuss plans for EU certification in further depth later this year. Simply listen to one of the many healthcare conference presentations that the EXAS management team has made in the past year. They are straight-shooters, focused, and very comprehensive in their methodology.