Except if the "lady' is a feminist, she might be put off. Although, the extra garlic might be enough to put her off regardless. arf arf!
I see your point about randomness but I must respectfully disagree. I can also see your quote below each of your posts. I agree with taking advantage of what is now. I had been uner-emphasizing this in favor of looking ahead. It is important first to know what is, probably more important than knowing what is going to be. And, as will be shown in my next post I am full-bore short at the moment. So, atleast to some degree, my thoughts about the market advancing higher are being put on the back-burner.
so what happened to your conviction of only trading from the "long side"... do you find something "funny" about posting a detailed and specific plan with apparent confidence, and then within 48 hours diametrically changing it?! Seems a bit.... uh... flimsy, uncertain, etc. But that's cool. However... what then WAS the purpose of posting it in the first place?!! Ice
My conviction of going long still exists, but I have realized my timing was (is, might be?) wrong. Thus, I have adapted for the time being. I apologize for the apparent confidence, I was writing what I felt at the time. I see no purpose in sticking to what I say merely for the reason that I have said it, opinions change often and I'd like not to be an individual who sets their mind in stone. Uncertain? To a degree. One should never be so certain that they are unwilling to change. The purpose of this thread is to exemplify the openess which I have encouraged in "Organized Systems Sharing." It would be hypocritical of me to suggest the sharing of one's system and then myself not share. I am, of course, not encouraging all to share as openly as I do in this thread. Rather, I am taking my suggestion further than I ask. That is, I am sharing more than what is required for Stone Kettle Soup (the working title sprung from the Organized Systems Sharing thread). I hope I've addressed your inquiry to your satisfaction. -rlb
ADSK Long @ 16.81 (Carryover) ADSK Sell Stop @ 16.30 (Carryover) ----Sell Stop filled @ 16.29---- P/L = -0.52 ADSK Buy Stop/Lmt @ 17.50/18.00 DSPG Short @ 19.41 (Carryover) DSPG Short @ 18.41 (2x Original Position) Avg Cost = 18.91 (Close: 18.41) DSPG Cover Stop @ 20.01 --changed-- @ 18.75 I am now 100% short, with as many shares as had previously been split short/long. The stop for DSPG has been drawn pretty tight. I have less confidence on the short side than the long, especially since DSPG has approached its old resistance. However, I feel I can afford to take the additional risk of doubling my position with a stop that is better than break-even. Basically, If I am wrong, or if DSPG's behaviour gets erratic I want out. If the market breaks down I want to win "big." Chances are I'll get stopped out and make nothing, but if not I stand to do pretty well. The new Buy Stop set for ADSK is in case it breaks up when I'm not looking. My job prevents me from keeping a close eye, and since my long-term outlook is still long I wouldn't want to miss a big move by being pre-occupied with my short trade of DSPG. The level of the stop (17.50) I think is cushy enough not to be stuck with an undesired trade. Should I begin to suspect an upcoming advance I will move the stop closer to market value.
ADSK Buy Stop/Lmt @ 17.50/18.00 (Carryover) DSPG Short @ 19.41 (Carryover) DSPG Short @ 18.41 (2x Original Position) (Carryover) Avg Cost = 18.91 (Close: 18.41) (Carryover) DSPG Cover Stop @ 20.01 --changed-- @ 18.75 (Carryover) ----Cover Stop Filled @ 18.765---- P/L = +0.145 (2x) Cum P/L = -0.23 With the strength of DSPG vs. the falling market I am not confident shorting is the best move. Unfortunately, I am not confident that the market is ready to rally yet. From what I could tell it was a good news day, and yet the indices were down. I'll leave my ADSK buy stop open and at a safe distance. I have a feeling tomorrow or Friday will start moving in one direction or the other strongly, but don't know which so I am going to be sitting on my hands.
noticed you did not post intial targets for DSPG short... there is support at or near 17 What is the basis for your short... TA or otherwise? Regards, Ice
I was looking at the high on 12/2/2002 as resistance/support. The conjestion that occured later near 17, if that is how you've determined support, certainly makes sense. However, like I said I saw resistance at 18.35, which it broke and held on 4/3 - 4/4. The program at the outset of this thread would have led me to a buy upon the retracement back to the 18.35 level. However, as I became more convinced of a general market retreat I took note of the ADX(14) which had broken 30. It seemed to me ready for a retracement and so I figured I would short it until conditions improved. Looking at the thing now I realize I wasn't that far off. My initial position @ 19.41 would have faired nicely if I'd exited @ 18.41. However, I did not and so was left with a marginally profitable trade. I made a call that when the stock stalled at ~18.4 it was a good time to double-up my postition. What I failed to remember was that my initial plan was to buy at that point. Maybe I still wouldn't buy there, but adding to my position was probably over-doing it. I'll begin posting profit targets, until now I hadn't really thought there to be much point to them. Now it makes some sense: if nothing else a profit target forces you to decide what type of trade you are going for. It also might help to remind you what to do later on when the situation changes. thx Ice.
Back to the plan. Ice was right, what I thought was adapting was more like wafffling. I had my head buried in too many thoughts. So, here goes again: DSPG Buy Stop @ 18.85 - Filled @ 18.86 (1x) DSPG Sell Stop @ 18.14 DSGP Target = 20.00 DSPG Close = 18.43 ADSK Buy Stop/Lmt @ 17.50/18.00 (Carryover) - CANCELLED DSPG has been holding near 18.40, which is near 18.35 where I had placed the new support level. The entry was a little late, but I needed to clear my head and that's where the market was when I did. The stop has been set as close to the highest low of the first downbar since the retreat from 20 began (18.26). This is being set, ala T. Lo's 4-6 Bar Rule [Rising price, ADX(14)>25, enter on break of high of downbar if downbars are less than 4-6]. I will raise the stop to this level if/when possible. Should that happen, 20.0 - 18.86 = 1.14; 18.86 - 18.26 = 0.60; Reward:Risk = 1.9. Should DSPG undergo more than 5 downbars and my sell stop somehow not be filled, I will exit the trade at market. This trade has been thus far poorly executed, but I'll still use it as a comparison to future, better executed, trades. ADSK has fallen back through its old resistance, new "support." I have thus cancelled that order.