I don't have time to mark up and attach a chart, but if you look at the SPY, the last week or so is almost identical to the first part of August. In both cases it gapped up to the same trading range. It lingered there for 7 days in August, with the same low-volume, low-volatility doldrums trading. Then it gapped down to test support again. I'm not saying it will do the exact same thing, but it wouldn't surprise me. Another likely scenario is the ol' false breakout (above 1130 on S&P briefly) then a false breakdown below 1040. Seen that many times as well. Then it goes back to 1040-1130 a little longer before the ultimate direction is determined.