Stocks: Repeat of Early August?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by MKTrader, Sep 16, 2010.

  1. I don't have time to mark up and attach a chart, but if you look at the SPY, the last week or so is almost identical to the first part of August. In both cases it gapped up to the same trading range. It lingered there for 7 days in August, with the same low-volume, low-volatility doldrums trading. Then it gapped down to test support again.

    I'm not saying it will do the exact same thing, but it wouldn't surprise me. Another likely scenario is the ol' false breakout (above 1130 on S&P briefly) then a false breakdown below 1040. Seen that many times as well. Then it goes back to 1040-1130 a little longer before the ultimate direction is determined.
     
  2. Here's a chart:
     
  3. qqqq has 3 unfilled gaps in Sep. this is quite insane. i hope we are not repeating the scenario from March.
     
  4. Considered in isolation, it's a good case.
    Zoom out some, and what you see is a big bull move followed by a very modest correction.
    I've been pretty clear that I consider this move to be a breakout that is the start of the next leg of that bull move, and you can check my posting history and see that I didn't say the same thing about the other moves off this level. Combination of gut feel, the very poor sentiment (a nice contrarian indicator), and the very high ratio of new highs to new lows on NYSE stocks on this upmove that started a couple of weeks back.
    I don't like looking at volume, because the only clear pattern I've ever been able to discern from it is that very high volume on a big day in the direction of a longstanding trend usually marks the blowoff bottom/top of that trend. Beyond that, I've never been able to tease any predictive value out of volume.
     
  5. I'm not so sure about the big bull move. While I'm not a big Fibonacci guy, I've noticed them working (probably self-fulfilling) at major highs and lows. The 1220 April high was an almost to- the-decimal 61.8% retracement of the Oct. '07 high to the Mar. '09 low.

    It all depends on your starting point I suppose. If you start any time in the last 12 years, the case for a double-top around 1570 then 666-1220 being a bear market rally (albeit an unusually strong one) is pretty good IMO.
     
  6. You are definitely right about that.
    We shall see.
     
  7. i remember your posts. you nailed the breakout really early.
     
  8. Make it 4 gaps by tomorrow.
     
  9. businessstaxes

    businessstaxes Guest

    it's the hindenberg omen.

    no volume gap ups. gaps up 10 points in the last 5 minutes IN ONE SECOND FLASH GAP? there was no volume at the last 15 minutes the market didn't move for the entire session any long position had to close before 4pm est.

    it's just more evidence the market is rigged. just put stops on all trades.

    these HFT machines are programmed to run stops and minimize trader profits. THE GUYS WHO RUN AND OWN THIS MARKET TREAT IT AND OPERATE IT LIKE RIGGED CASINO.

    WHY IS THAT TRILLIUM CAPITA FINED WITH MARKET MANIPULATION WHEN THE MARKE IS MANIPULATED.

     
  10. I won't get into conspiracy/manipulation stuff other than to say it has been awfully strange. First, the market sells off on bad news or "buy the rumor/sell the massaged econ data" but selloffs are very limited. Then around 1:00 to 2:00 PM the Dow or Nasdaq slowly lead the other indices into positive territory for no reason--not even a lame one.

    The last couple of days have been almost a "Groundhog Day" kind of thing.
     
    #10     Sep 17, 2010